Yesterday, we posted an article about first inning betting and listed 3 big name pitchers who stink in the opening frame, noting that you might want to bet against them on first inning lines because of that.
Today, we’re going to build on that first inning betting theme and identify the best teams in MLB this season when it comes to scoring runs or taking leads in the first inning. Some offences regularly come out of the gate swinging while others often take a while to get going.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
— Tom Kertscher (@KertscherSports) June 15, 2017
Milwaukee has easily been baseball’s best team in the first inning this season, which has helped them get off to a surprising 36-32 start to the year and a lead atop the NL Central.
The Brew Crew has scored a first-inning run in 42.65% of its games through June 15, including a whopping 47.22% of the time when playing at home. They’re averaging 0.91 runs scored in first innings this year, which is nearly 20% more than the next-closest team in this category.
Milwaukee has also done an outstanding job of limiting its opponents in the opening frame, allowing an average of 0.35 runs in 1st innings and giving up a first-inning run just 23.53% of the time. That makes them a terrific first inning moneyline bet on almost any night.
2. Miami Marlins
— WPLG Local 10 News (@WPLGLocal10) May 27, 2017
Scoring runs hasn’t been a strength for the Marlins, who rank 18th in MLB in runs per game. However, they’re the second-best team in baseball when it comes to scoring in the first inning, where they average 0.77 runs per frame.
Miami’s done most of that damage at home, where it has put up 0.91 runs in first innings, compared to 0.62 on the road. When the Marlins do score runs in the first, they usually come in bunches, since they are 7th in MLB in first inning scoring percentage at 37.5% (both at home and on the road).
Unfortunately for the Marlins, any early runs they score are usually offset by first inning runs they allow. Miami has given up a first-inning run in 40.63% of its games, including an MLB-high 53.13% of road contests. So instead of taking the Marlins to win the first inning, you might want to look to bet ‘Yes’ on first inning run scored props instead.
3. New York Mets
— Nelson Maldonado Jr. (@Nellyjr80) May 7, 2017
The Mets have scored the third-most first inning runs in MLB this year, averaging 0.75 per contest. Like the other two teams ahead of them on this list, New York has scored more first-inning runs at home (0.86) than on the road (0.61).
They’ve also done it pretty consistently, putting up a first-inning run 41.54% of the time to rank third in MLB in that department as well.
Like the Marlins, the Mets also give up a ton of runs in the first inning. They’ve allowed the second-most first inning runs in baseball (0.88), and lead all of MLB with an opponent first-inning scoring percentage of 44.62%.
Add it up, and New York is scoring or allowing first inning runs a combined 86% of the time. With props on first inning scoring generally ranging from -110 to -130 odds, there’s going to often be great value on the Yes to first inning runs being scored in Mets games.