From a point spread perspective, mediocre teams can often be a bettor’s golden ticket in the NBA.
Everyone knows teams like the Heat, Celtics and Spurs are tearing it up this season. But so do the oddsmakers, so they inflate the point spreads to the point where the top teams don’t cover on a regular basis. Consider that Boston and Miami are a combined 58-18 on the season, but that they’re only 38-37-1 against the spread.
Meanwhile, two of the three best teams against the spread this year in the NBA are a combined 32-43.
Yes, the 76ers and Grizzlies have been very profitable to back this season. Philly is a league-best 24-12-1 ATS, while the Grizzlies aren’t far behind at 22-15-1.
In the middle are the surprising Knicks, who are 21-15 overall and 23-12-1 against the number.
Being able to identify teams like the Sixers and Grizz – teams that have losing records but are consistently playing their opponents tough – can make you some money in a real hurry. Common perception is that these teams aren’t any good, so you’ll often catch some real value on some inflated lines with these mediocre squads.
One more thing: sometimes oddsmakers can’t set the lines high enough for the crappiest teams in the Association.
Everyone knows the Kings and Cavaliers are garbage. A combined 16-55 this season kind of garbage.
Oddsmakers balloon spreads on Sacramento and Cleveland games, hoping offering double-digits will entice some people to bet on them. So far, it hasn’t worked. The Kings are a putrid 11-22-1 ATS this year, while the Cavs aren’t much better at 13-23-1 (and 7-18-1 in their last 26).
Stay away from betting on the top teams in the NBA, because you won’t find much value on them. Focus instead on the average teams that give a consistent effort and it doesn’t hurt to bet against the crappy teams that are getting blown out on a regular basis.