Being late might be fashionable when attending a party, but it’s not an asset when it comes to NCAA football betting.
If you’re just looking at Week 1 college football point spreads now, chances are you’ve missed out on the best odds for some of your wagers.
Many of the opening week’s games have already seen the point spreads drastically change, some moving nearly as much as a touchdown. In several instances, teams that originally opened as underdogs are now favourites.
There’s still value in looking at which games have had the greatest line moves, however. Oddsmakers change point spreads either because of an imbalance of money on one side or because bettors they respect have tipped their hand on a game. If a line moves by more than three points — especially over football key numbers — you might want to reconsider betting on the team that the line moved against.
At some point, however, the line can move enough that it opens up value on the other side. If oddsmakers open Florida as a 7-point favourite against Miami, it stands to reason that Miami might become a good bet if you can get +10 or more.
Also, don’t forget that the point spreads on favourites generally rise as game time approaches. If you like the underdog in a game, it’s typically best to wait until kickoff in order to take advantage of some extra points on the spread.
Here’s a list at the games with the biggest line moves for Week 1 of the NCAA football season. It should be pointed out that the opening week often features the biggest line moves of the year, since there are so many unknowns about the teams and also because bettors have months to analyze the games, not a week.
• Bowling Green went from a 3-point underdog to a 3.5-point favourite versus Tulsa
• Georgia went from a 2-point underdog to a 2-point favourite at Clemson
• Mississippi went from a 1.5-point underdog to a 3.5-point favourite at Vanderbilt
• Central Florida dropped from -28 to -21.5 versus Akron
• Maryland went from -14.5 to -20 versus Florida International
• Notre Dame went from -24.5 to -30 versus Temple
• Michigan went from -26 to -31.5 versus Central Michigan
• Iowa dropped from -6.5 to -3.5 versus Northern Illinois
• Arkansas went from -14 to -10.5 versus Louisiana Lafayette
• Marshall went from -13 to -18 versus Miami (Ohio)
• Nebraska went from -21.5 to -28 versus Wyoming
• UCLA went from -14.5 to -19.5 versus Nevada
• Colorado State went from a 1.5-point underdog to a 2.5-point favourite versus Colorado
• Northwestern dropped from -8.5 to -6 at California
• Louisville went from -16 to -20.5 versus Ohio
• Rutgers at Fresno increased from 47 to 55.5
• USC at Hawaii dropped from 58 to 53.5
• Buffalo at Ohio State dropped from 63 to 55.5
• Purdue at Cincinnati dropped from 55 to 49
• Toledo at Florida increased from 49 to 56
• Louisiana Tech at NC State dropped from 73 to 62.5
• Rice at Texas A&M increased from 65 to 71.5
• Mississippi State at Oklahoma State dropped from 66 to 60
• Kentucky at Western Kentucky increased from 50 to 56.5
• Washington State at Auburn increased from 49 to 59
• Texas San Antonio at New Mexico dropped from 61 to 54.5
• LSU at Texas Christian increased from 43 to 50.5
• Boise State at Washington increased from 47 to 53
• Colorado at Colorado State dropped from 57 to 48.5