Week 1 NFL Betting Picks And Previews

Tom Brady's availability for the NFL season opener was still up in the air as the calendar turned to September. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)


It’s finally here.

We’ve been looking forward to the 2015 NFL season ever since Malcolm Butler picked off Russell Wilson in what might have been the most bizarre ending in Super Bowl history.

As excited as we are, though, it’s important to remember that this is Week 1. Minefields are everywhere. We may think we know what to expect based on last year or the preseason, but there’s a lot we don’t know.

Bet accordingly. Bet wisely. But be sure to bet.

Because that’s what makes this fun.

Let’s check out the Week 1 NFL Betting Odds, shall we?

(Listed odds as of Sunday, Aug. 30. For updated NFL betting lines, visit our Live Odds page. And for our weekly official NFL betting picks, be sure to subscribe to our free picks email list.)

Steelers at Patriots (New England -3, O/U 48.5)

Will he play or won’t he? As we write this, we’re still not sure whether Tom Brady will be under center for the Pats in the opener or whether he’ll be serving a suspension for the over-inflated Deflategate controversy from last year’s playoffs.

This betting line is based on the assumption that Brady won’t be playing, considering that New England opened as a 6-point favourite. A field goal is a pretty cheap price to get the defending Super Bowl champions in their season opener at home, even against a decent Steelers club. And you know Bill Belichick will be selling the ‘us against the world’ mentality to his players, giving us an extremely motivated Patriots squad to back. We’d almost prefer Brady not play in this game, since the betting line might drop even more.

Lean: New England -3 -110 at Sports Interaction

Chiefs at Texans (Houston -1.5, O/U 41)

Question marks about both teams make this game a difficult game to handicap. Will this year’s Chiefs look like the squad that won 7 of its first 10 last year, or the one that finished on a 2-4 slide? And how will Houston’s offence look without departed WR Andre Johnson and with either Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer at QB?

If you were to put a gun to our head, we’d take the Texans in this one. Houston can run the ball very effectively and stops the run pretty well. Kansas City can run the ball too, but the Chiefs’ run defence was awful last year. Without competent QBs on either side in this matchup, the under looks like a tempting proposition as well.

Lean: Houston -1.5 -110 at Pinnacle Sports

Seahawks at Rams (Seattle -3.5, O/U 43)

The easy pick here is the Seahawks, who would have won their second straight Super Bowl last year were it not for that ridiculous goal-line pass at the end of last year’s loss to the Patriots.

But NFL betting is never that easy, right? St. Louis usually plays the Seahawks tough, especially in St. Louis where the Rams have claimed 2 of the last 3 meetings and covered 4 of the last 5. Toss in the fact that we’re now getting over a field goal with the Rams (the line opened at Seattle -3 before going up to -3.5) and St. Louis looks even better.

Lean: St. Louis +3.5 -107 at Pinnacle Sports

Colts at Bills (Indianapolis -2.5, O/U 46.5)

Indianapolis is a very sexy pick to win the Super Bowl this year, especially with AFC rivals New England and Denver both expected to take a step back this year and the Colts having an easy path in the AFC South. Everyone knows about Andrew Luck and the offence, but Indy has also made some nice adjustments on defence that should make the Colts even better in 2015.

Buffalo’s improved as well, of course, and this is the debut of new Bills coach Rex Ryan. Buffalo’s defence should continue to keep the Bills in games, but we think that Buffalo’s long-time Achilles heel — quarterback play — will keep them from pulling off the upset here as a home dog. Indy pulls this one out but it’s close.

Lean: Under 46.5 -108 at Pinnacle Sports

Browns at Jets (New York -3, O/U 40.5)

The problem with betting this game is that you’re more likely to watch it. We’ll break it down anyway, with the disclaimer that we can’t be held responsible for any damage done to your eyes by viewing this dumpster fire.

It does seem funny that the Jets are favoured by a full field goal over anyone, even the Browns. Cleveland started last year on a 7-4 streak before falling apart down the stretch, and the Browns’ depth at running back and receiver can compensate for their deficiencies at QB. We’re certainly not in any rush to bet on a Jets team that lost its starting QB during training camp because of a sucker punch.

Lean: Browns +3 -105 at Sports Interaction

Packers at Bears (Green Bay -6, O/U 50)

Green Bay gets all the love in this one, and why not? The Pack has won 4 straight NFC North titles and seems to have the Bears’ number no matter where the two teams play. Even without Jordy Nelson, Green Bay’s offence is just plain scary to be betting against.

Don’t be so quick to dismiss the Bears here, though. Jay Cutler tends to take his ball and go home when things aren’t going well, but he could be a bit more motivated with the fresh slate of a new season. Plus, this is the debut of new Chicago head coach John Fox, a defensive guru who is known for turning teams around quickly. We won’t be as bold as to take the Bears to win the game straight up, but we like this home dog to keep things close.

Lean: Bears +7 -130 at 5Dimes

Panthers at Jaguars (Carolina -3, O/U 41)

Two under-rated teams in this matchup, in our opinion. Carolina won five straight games down the stretch last year, including a playoff contest, and allowed just 15 points a game in its final 6. The Jags look poised to be one of the surprising teams this season, led by sophomore QB Blake Bortles.

Jacksonville has made some improvements under the radar, and everyone remembers the Jags as the team that has averaged 2.5 wins per season since 2010. At home, we think Jacksonville can get off to a good start.

Lean: Jaguars +145 (moneyline)

Dolphins at Redskins (Miami -3, O/U 43.5)

It’s the season opener, but this is a big game for Miami. The Fish have knocked on the playoff door the past few seasons, so they can’t afford a slip-up in a game they really should win. There should be plenty of excitement on the Miami team as Ndamukong Suh makes his debut.

Washington is desperate for some success as well, having posted just 1 winning season in the last 7 years. There’s just something about the Redskins, though. When things start to go wrong, they end up going wrong quickly and in a big way. There’s a lot of pressure on RG3 to perform here, and we’d rather take the road team playing a bit looser.

Lean: Miami -3 -115 at Sports Interaction

Saints at Cardinals (Arizona -2.5, O/U 47)

Arizona was a huge surprise in 2014, blazing out to an 11-3 start before injuries to starting QB Carson Palmer and backup QB Drew Stanton derailed the Cardinals. Bettors remember how teams end the previous season, so Arizona might still be flying under the radar here.

Saints have potential to look drastically different this season after dealing TE Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks. Drew Brees is coming off a bad year and is showing signs of regression, and we can’t ignore Arizona’s recent success (6-1 ATS last 7) at home. -2.5 looks like a cheap price here on the home favourites.

Lean: Arizona -2.5 -115 at 5Dimes

Lions at Chargers (San Diego -2.5, O/U 45)

Pretty big road test for a weaker Detroit defence without departed Ndamukong Suh and LB Nick Fairley. Philip Rivers can be a turnover machine, but he has also lit up his share of opposing defences over the years.

Fortunately for the Lions, San Diego’s defence isn’t exactly a brick wall either. We’re not sure who wins this one, but we definitely see potential for fireworks.

Lean: Over 45.5 -110

Ravens at Broncos (Denver -4.5, O/U 51)

Broncos are motivated to erase the memory of last year’s late-season collapse (remember that playoff loss to Indy, when Peyton Manning was actually booed by the home fans) and Manning is out to prove he’s not finished. Still, these Broncos aren’t likely to be as good this year as in the past few seasons, and we’re not sure they can just ‘flick the switch’ and blow teams out whenever they want.

Baltimore has made some off-season changes and replaced those holes with draft picks, so the Ravens are still a work in progress, especially early in the year. We think Baltimore can keep things within a touchdown but 4 points isn’t a lot, so teasing the Ravens with the over seems like a decent idea.

Lean: 6-Point Teaser Baltimore +10.5/Over 45 -110 at Pinnacle Sports

Titans at Buccaneers (Tampa Bay -3, O/U 42)

As ugly as this matchup is, there is some intrigue with the NFL debuts of two highly-touted QBs, Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay and Marcus Mariota for the Titans.

Winston is the flashier player but has always been very turnover-prone, and that trend could continue as he gets his feet wet in the pros. Mariota, on the other hand, has impressed many during the preseason and seems to have the better poise to handle this spot. Plus, he might not feel as much pressure opening on the road as Winston could feel playing in the state where he won a national championship. Getting a field goal with the Titans at plus money (maybe we’ll even get +3.5) seems like the right side here.

Lean: Titans +3 +109 at Pinnacle Sports

Bengals at Raiders (Cincinnati -3.5, O/U 44)

On the surface, this looks like a great chance for the Bengals to open the season with a blow-out win. Cincy may not have had any recent playoff success, but the Bengals have been one of the best regular-season teams in the NFL over the past five years.

Everyone knows the Raiders are awful, so you won’t get any favours with the point spread here. Jack Del Rio makes his coaching debut in Oakland, and the Raiders did show improvement at the end of last year, going 3-3 in their final 6 after an 0-10 start. The silver-and-black hangs around in this one, but we don’t see Oakland having the pedigree to pull out a win.

Lean: Bengals -3 -125 (buying 0.5 points) at Bodog

Giants at Cowboys (Dallas -5, O/U 51.5)

The NFC East divisional games are always important, so it’s awesome to have one in the opening week of Sunday Night Football. Hopes are sky high in Dallas after one of the Cowboys’ best seasons in years, and the Giants are also optimistic they can return to the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Road teams have a tendency to do well in NFC East divisional games, so we think 5 points is an awful lot in this spot. That could be explained by the fact everyone’s high on Dallas and not too high on the Giants. New York’s offence is easily capable of keeping things close, if not the outright upset win.

Lean: Giants +5 -105 at Pinnacle Sports

Eagles at Falcons (Philadelphia -1.5, O/U 53.5)

Remember when the Falcons were nearly invincible at home? Yeah, neither do we. Matt Ryan and the aging Falcons have fallen far in the past couple of years, and Atlanta has brought in some youngsters in an attempt to rebuild. It might take a few games before the Falcons are firing on all cylinders.

Normally, we don’t read too much into the preseason, but the Eagles have looked so good that it’s hard to ignore. Sam Bradford seems to be a perfect fit in Chip Kelly’s offensive system, which was the biggest question mark in Philly going into the year. It’s awfully square, but we like the Eagles to roll in this one.

Lean: Eagles -1.5 -110

Vikings at 49ers (Minnesota -2.5, O/U 41.5)

We are really, really high on the Vikings this year. Minnesota is overshadowed in the NFC North by Green Bay, but the Vikings were 7-9 last year without Adrian Peterson and 5 of their losses came by 8 points or less. Now they get Peterson back, joining QB Teddy Bridgewater who now has a year of experience. Add that to a very strong defence, and Minnesota has serious potential.

The 49ers are a total mess. Not sure we need more analysis than this.

Lean: Vikings -2.5 -105 at Pinnacle Sports