National Football League betting isn’t usually easy at the best of times, but it might be even a bit more difficult at the beginning of the season.
Players have changed teams since the previous year. New draft picks are getting their first taste of NFL action. And there are always a few new coaches calling the shots on the sidelines.
One quick way to determine which teams have improved and which are expected to decline is comparing last season’s standings with this year’s projected win totals. Here’s a look at five teams who stick out.
Buffalo Bills (won 6 games last season, projected to win 8 in 2012)
Hopes are high in the Queen City after a surprisingly productive offseason for the Bills, particularly the signing of stud free agent DE Mario Williams. Buffalo expects to have one of the top defensive lines in the league this season, a far cry from last year’s unit that was 27th in sacks and 28th in rushing defence. Offensively, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller form a strong backfield and WR Stevie Johnson is back. Remember, the Bills started last year with five wins in their first seven games before Jackson broke his leg and Buffalo went in the tank. But the jury is still out on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who struggled after signing a seven-year, $62 million extension midway through last year. And don’t forget Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs since the Music City Miracle in 1999.
Indianapolis Colts (won 2 games last season, projected to win 5 in 2012)
The Colts sure looked like a one-man team last season, plummeting to the bottom of the NFL after Peyton Manning was lost for the season to injury. With Manning now in Denver, Indianapolis hopes it has plugged a few of those holes that were exposed, and oddsmakers appear to think they have. The biggest difference, of course, is the addition of rookie QB Andrew Luck, the stud first-overall pick out of Stanford. Luck won’t have the same cast around him that Manning had, however, with RB Joseph Addai, WR Pierre Garcon and TE Dallas Clark among the other significant departures. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts have switched to a 3-4 defence in hopes of rectifying a unit that was gashed repeatedly last year. It remains to be seen how that will impact passrushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both of whom may be defending the pass more this year. We might see the Colts win a few more ballgames this year without the ‘Suck For Luck’ motivation.
St. Louis Rams (won 2 games last season, projected to win 6 in 2012)
St. Louis was simply dreadful on offence last year, ranking last in points per game and 31st in total offence. A lot of the heat fell on sophomore QB Sam Bradford, but he missed six games with a high-ankle sprain and didn’t have a lot of help from an injury-plagued offensive line. RB Steven Jackson remains one of the top backs in the league and the Rams hope they’ve addressed their issues at receiver. On defence, there seems to be potential with young ends Chris Long (13 sacks a year ago) and Robert Quinn. And another reason for optimism in St. Louis is new coach Jeff Fisher, who replaced Steve Spagnuolo. Fisher proved his ability to get a lot out of a little during his time in Tennessee.
Green Bay Packers (won 15 games last season, projected to win 12 in 2012)
In fairness to the Cheeseheads, oddsmakers can’t exactly install 13 or 14 as a projected win total for any team. But there might be reason to think the Packers won’t be quite as dominant in 2012. The offence remains as scary as ever, led by league MVP Aaron Rodgers and WRs Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. However, any problems Green Bay has are all on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers ranked last in defence last season — an abnormality for a 15-win team — and were exposed by Eli Manning and the Giants in the playoffs. We feel like we’re reaching a bit here to be critical of the Packers, but the bottom line is that blindly betting on Green Bay every week (which worked last season) might not be a great idea in 2012.
New Orleans Saints (won 13 games last year, projected to win 10 in 2012)
Sure, the Saints re-signed QB Drew Brees and still have tons of weapons on offence. But there’s a lot of uncertainty this year in New Orleans after the well-documented bounty scandal resulted in the one-year suspension of head coach Sean Payton and six-game suspension of interim-coach-to-be Joe Vitt. LB Jonathan Vilma (one-year suspension) was another casualty of the scandal, which will almost certainly hurt a defensive unit that wasn’t all that great to begin with. If things don’t go well off the bat for the Saints, you know those Bounty Gate questions won’t be far behind — and teams don’t often fare very well when distracted by the glare of the national media spotlight.
Other notable upgrades – Minnesota Vikings (won 3 games last year, projected to win 6 in 2012), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (won 4 games last year, projected to win 6 in 2012), Philadelphia Eagles (won 8 games last year, projected to win 10 in 2012)
Other notable downgrades – San Francisco 49ers (won 13 games last year, projected to win 10 in 2012), Pittsburgh Steelers (won 12 games last year, projected to win 10 in 2012), Baltimore Ravens (won 12 games last year, projected to win 10 in 2012)