Three Reasons Not To Bet On The Packers This Sunday

Christian Ponder was Minnesota's starting QB in a 42-10 loss at Green Bay earlier this year, but he won't be the Vikings' pivot Sunday. (Photo credit: Mike Morbeck / Foter / CC BY-SA)


It’s never an appealing idea to lie down in front of a steamroller, and that’s what the Green Bay Packers are these days.

But even if you can’t bring yourself to bet against the Packers this weekend when they visit the Vikings, here are 3 reasons to hesitate before you click the submit button on Green Bay -9.5.

1. Packers are overvalued

NFL betting is like buying stocks. (Pretty fitting analogy for the publicly-traded Packers, no?) You want to bet on (buy) teams when they’re underappreciated, and you want to bet against (sell) squads that are overvalued.

Coming off back-to-back 50-point efforts against the Bears and Eagles, there’s no doubt that Green Bay’s stock is the highest it’s been this season.

Just seven weeks ago, the Packers were a 9 point favourite AT HOME to the Vikings. Now they’re laying 9 on the road? When you factor in the standard 3-point adjustment for home field advantage, that means the Packers are laying 6 more points in this one than in the earlier meeting between the teams.

Oh, and about the road thing. Green Bay’s blowout wins this season have all come at home. Away from Lambeau, the Packers have a losing record this year, albeit against some pretty tough competition.

2. Patriots on deck for Green Bay

The Packers hammered the NFC East-leading Eagles last weekend and have a showdown with the Patriots on deck next week. That makes this game a “sandwich game” in NFL betting, when teams face a mediocre opponent between two heavyweights.

Yes, the Vikings are bitter NFC North rivals, so you might think there’s no way Green Bay won’t be 100% focused on this one.

But we had the same thought about Kansas City visiting AFC West rival Oakland on Thursday night, and we all saw what happened there.

3. Vikings seeking revenge

While the Pack might not be that excited to play Minnesota, the Vikings should be chomping at the bit to get back at Green Bay.

The Packers, you might remember, obliterated Minnesota 42-10 at Lambeau in Week 5 in front of a national TV audience on Thursday Night Football.

The Packers literally ran over the Vikings in a Week 5 blowout

“Playing like that, you don’t have much to say. It was embarrassing,” Vikings QB Christian Ponder said after the game.

Ponder started that contest for the Vikings in place of injured QB Teddy Bridgewater, who will be back under centre Sunday. But you can be sure the rest of Ponder’s teammates were embarrassed in that Week 5 loss as well.

That loss might have even been a tipping point for Minnesota’s season. Since then, the Vikes have held opponents under 19 points per game. They also rank eighth in the NFL against the pass, which is Green Bay’s bread and butter on offence.

One final point on this: The Packers have blown out Minnesota quite a few times in the history of the rivalry. But they haven’t beat the Vikings by double digits twice in the same season since 1988.

It’s Vikings or nothing for us

Like we said, this might not be enough to convince you to take the points with Minnesota on Sunday. We’re not even sure we’re going to make the Vikings one of our NFL betting premium plays this weekend ( if the line gets to +10.5, that could change things).

But we definitely won’t be laying more than a touchdown with the Packers on the road against a division rival playing with revenge.