NFL Playoffs Betting Previews And Picks

The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with the wild card round, often the most exciting round of the postseason.

Here are a few things to know about this weekend’s games if you plan on betting on any of the action:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+10.5, 44)

On paper, this appears to be one of the biggest mismatches in NFL playoff history. The Saints are defending Super Bowl champions while Seattle is the first-ever NFL team to win a division with a sub-.500 record. The spread, however, reflects this. I’ve never seen a home team as a double-digit underdog in the NFL playoffs.

The Saints haven’t exactly beaten up on weaker opposition this season. In fact, New Orleans is 1-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games against teams with a losing record. The Saints are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when favoured by 10.5 points or more.

When the Seahawks lose, they lose big. All of their nine losses this year came by two touchdowns or more, including a 34-19 loss at New Orleans in Week 11. That would explain why they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 6-19-1 in their last 26 against teams with a winning record.

It looks like Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck, who missed last week’s game with a hip injury, should be back this weekend. If he can’t go, Charlie Whitehurst – who led Seattle to a victory over the Rams last week – will get the start. For the Saints, tight end Jeremy Shockey is questionable, as are a few other players.

Our pick: We won’t be betting this game, but if we had to, we’d probably have to plug our nose and take the Seahawks. Catching 10.5 points on your home field is an awful lot.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 44.5)

The Jets (11-5) actually have a better record than the Colts (10-6). Indy, however, has won five in a row, while the Jets lost three of their last five.

The Colts whipped New York 30-17 in last year’s playoffs, avenging a 29-15 loss to the Jets in the final game of the regular season.

When you think the Jets, you think defence. But New York went over the total in 12 of 16 games this season, including all eight on the road.

New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a road underdog of a field goal or less. Indy is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five as a home favourite of three or less.

Our pick: This is not an ideal matchup for the Colts, who can’t run the ball even against mediocre defences and should struggle on the ground against New York. It’s up to Peyton Manning to beat the Jets through the air, and that’s not easy either. We like the Jets, but wouldn’t bet it unless it was +3.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 40.5)

Ravens are in the playoffs for a third straight year. KC is making its first postseason appearance since 2006 and has lost six straight playoff games, dating back to 1994.

Kansas City improved from 4-12 last year to 10-6 this season. But the only playoff team it beat was 7-9 Seattle.

The Chiefs have been dynamite at Arrowhead all year, going 7-1 and outscoring teams by nearly 10 points a game.

Baltimore went 5-2-1 ATS on the road this year, allowing an average of 17.2 points a game.

Our pick: KC’s strength is running the ball. Baltimore’s strength is stopping the run. If the Chiefs can’t move the ball on the ground, we don’t like the chances of Matt Cassel lighting up the Ravens secondary. We like Baltimore -3, but we aren’t expecting a blowout either.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46)

Packers won in Philly the opening week of the season, 27-20. Michael Vick, however, torched the Green Bay defence for 175 passing yards and 103 rushing yards in relief of starting QB Kevin Kolb, who left the game with a concussion.

Eagles stumbled into the playoffs, losing their last two games at home – including an embarrassing 24-14 loss to the Vikings. Green Bay won its last two games to make the playoffs, beating the Giants and Bears

Defence has been the Packers’ calling card all year. Green Bay allowed just 15 points per game this season, and just 14.6 points per game on the road.

GB has struggled in close games. The Pack’s six losses came by a combined 20 points, and their 10 wins came by an average of nearly 17.

Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 7-1 in playoff openers.

Our pick: This should be the most exciting game of the weekend. The fact that Philadelphia, a big public team with Vick at QB, is not favoured by a full field goal tells us something. We like the Green Bay defence a whole lot more than the Eagles’, even if the Pack doesn’t have a decent running attack. We’ll take Green Bay +2.5 in this one.