3 NFL Teams Who Might Not Be As Good As You Think

Turnovers, like this fumble, can drastically affect the outcomes of NFL games. (Photo credit: AJ Guel Photography via Foter.com / CC BY)

Turnovers are the biggest equalizer in football. A team can dominate the other in total yardage and first downs, but lose the game because it lost the turnover battle.

In fact, according to a 2012 Boston.com article written by Andrew Mooney, teams who are evenly matched increase their chances of victory from 50% to 69% if they force one more turnover than their opponent. If they are +2 in the turnover battle, they have an 84% chance of winning. If they’re +3 or higher, they have a 93% chance.

Winning percentage compared to turnover ratio

NFL turnover ratio

The other thing about turnovers is that they often involve luck.

Obviously, some quarterbacks throw less interceptions than others because they’re more careful with the ball, and some running backs are better than others when it comes to not fumbling the ball.

But many have argued that forcing turnovers on defence has as much to do with luck as it has to do with being a “ball-hawking defence”, especially recovering fumbles.

Once the football hits the turf, it can bounce any which way. It’s one thing to force fumbles, it’s another to recover most of them.

That helps explain why 7 different teams have led the NFL in turnovers forced in the past 7 seasons.

Top Defences In Turnovers Forced From 2009-15

    • 2015: Panthers (39), finished 15-1
    • 2014: Texans (34), finished 9-7
    • 2013: Seahawks (39), finished 13-3
    • 2012: Bears (44), finished 10-6
    • 2011: 49ers (38), finished 13-3
    • 2010: Giants (39), finished 10-6
    • 2009: Packers (40), finished 11-5

– Source: ProFootballReference.com

The winning percentage of those teams was 72.3% (81-31).

So now we’ve established that forcing turnovers is both very valuable and very hard to do consistently. It makes sense, then, that teams who led the league in that statistic probably aren’t as good as their record suggests.

Here are the 3 teams in the NFL this season that might not be as good as you think, based on their high turnover ratio from 2015.

1. Carolina Panthers (15-1 overall, 11-5 against the spread)

There’s no disputing the Panthers are a good team. But 15-1 good? We’re not so sure.

Carolina ranked 11th in the league in offence last year, producing 369 yards per game. Their defence ranked sixth, giving up 322.9 yards per contest.

But our lasting visual of the Panthers from 2015 – well, other than Cam Newton getting pounded by the Broncos defence in the Super Bowl – is them pounding the Cardinals and Seahawks in the NFC playoffs.

Carolina’s turnover ratio in those wins over Arizona and Seattle? How about 7:1 versus the Cardinals (both teams produced 21 first downs) and 2:0 against the Seahawks (when Carolina built a 31-0 lead by halftime).

2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 overall, 8-8 against the spread)


Turnover ratio was the key to a playoff appearance for the Chiefs, who went 11-5 despite ranking 27th in the NFL in offence.

Kansas City’s defence was no pushover, finishing 7th in yards allowed and 3rd in points against.

But the Chiefs were a mediocre team at the midway point of last season, coming out of their bye with a 3-5 record. The beginning of their turnaround was a 29-13 victory in Denver, when they intercepted 5 passes on defence. That kickstarted a 9-0 run that included a 30-0 win over Houston in the playoffs when the Chiefs again forced 5 turnovers.

KC’s run ended in the AFC divisional round when they lost the turnover battle 1-0 to New England and the game 27-20.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4 overall, 12-3-1 against the spread)


Long before the Bengals made absolute asses of themselves in their playoff collapse against the Steelers, they won their first 8 games of the season and were even talked about as a potential undefeated team.

That talk ended in Week 10 with a 10-6 loss at home to Houston, when the Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-1.

Cincy won 12 games and the AFC North title despite being middle of the pack on offence (15th) and 9th in defence. Now they’ll have to play a first-place schedule, not to mention getting over last year’s playoff loss.

The Bengals’ luck may have already run out. Remember, Cincinnati appeared to have locked up the win over Pittsburgh in the wild card round after an interception by Vontaze Burfict, but Jeremy Hill fumbled it right back to the Steelers, allowing Pittsburgh to drive for the winning field goal.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.