Best And Worst NFL Teams To Bet On In 2012

Andrew Luck and the Colts were one of the NFL's best teams to bet on in 2012.
Andrew Luck and the Colts were one of the NFL’s best teams to bet on in 2012.

Win-loss records can be misleading in the National Football League.

Unless it’s their favourite team, the only record most bettors worry about is squads’ performance against the spread. It’s not uncommon for some of the league’s top teams to be bad bets because of large point spreads they have to cover, and some of the worst teams in the NFL can flourish against the spread because they continue to play hard and keep things close.

Here’s a look at each team’s record against the spread in 2012 and a little insight about them:

Indianapolis (11-5)
The Colts were the feel-good story of 2012, rallying around coach Chuck Pagano (leukemia) to play inspired football. Sophomore QB Andrew Luck and company won’t sneak up on anybody this year.

Seattle (11-5)
Bettors might have underestimated the advantage the Seahawks enjoy at Qwest Stadium. Seattle covered its first seven home games until failing to cover as 11-point chalk in their season finale against the Rams.

Washington (11-5)
Led by flashy rookie QB Robert Griffin III, the surprising Redskins won and covered their final seven games of the regular season. Washington was favoured in just two of its first nine contests.

St. Louis (11-5)
The Rams finished below .500 (7-9) but were a scrappy underdog covering four of five games in which they were catching more than 7 points.

Tampa Bay (10-5-1)
Tampa was a bettor’s wet dream through the first 12 games of last season, going 9-2-1 against the spread. Oddsmakers caught up to the Bucs, however, as Tampa covered one of its last four — including an outright loss to the Eagles as eight-point faves.

Denver (10-6)
After a slow start, the Broncos covered eight times in their 11-game winning streak to end the season. That stat could have been even better. In the other three games, Denver fell short of the spread by a combined 4 points.

Atlanta (9-6-1)
The Falcons aren’t particularly flashy, but they win games. That is an excellent formula for covering the spread.

Cincinnati (9-6-1)
Cincy was quietly one of the league’s hottest teams against the spread in the final half of last season, covering seven of its final eight.

Houston (9-7)
The Texans were a good bully. Houston covered four of five times last year when it was favoured by double digits.

New England (9-7)
The Brady Bunch was the opposite of Houston, covering smaller numbers but struggling against the spread when made heavy favourites. New England was 2-4 as favourites of 10 points or more, including a 20-18 loss to Arizona in Week 2.

Green Bay (9-7)
A public darling, the Packers were underdogged just twice last year, at Houston (42-24 win) and at the Giants (38-10 loss). Green Bay’s numbers would have looked even better had the Pack not gotten jobbed in Seattle on Monday night.

San Francisco (9-7)
Some coaches seem like they care about covering the point spread. Not 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who declined a last-minute safety that would have allowed SF to cover as 7.5-point faves in a 13-6 win over Seattle last October.

Carolina (9-7)
The Panthers were a tale of two half-seasons in 2012. After opening with a 1-6 mark (3-4 ATS), Carolina won and covered five of its last six games. The hot finish included wins over the Falcons and Saints.

Minnesota (8-7-1)
You could throw point spreads out the window last year when the Vikings played. When Minnesota won, it covered (except for a push as 7-pt faves over Arizona). When the Vikings lost, they didn’t cover. That’s a sign of a middle-of-the-pack team that doesn’t lay or catch a lot of points very often.

Cleveland (8-7-1)
Cleveland only won five games but still covered more games than it didn’t. Many people simply dismiss the Browns franchise as a joke, which can give them plenty of point-spread value.

Miami (8-8)
The Dolphins did not cover in their first three attempts as a favourite, including losses at Indianapolis and home to Tennessee. Miami did finally win and cover as chalk against Jacksonville in Week 15 and Buffalo the following week.

New Orleans (8-8)
It took a while for bettors to adjust to the fact that the Saints weren’t the same team without coach Sean Payton. It seems unbelievable now, but New Orleans was an 8-point favourite over Washington in its 2012 season opener (the Redskins won 40-32).

NY Giants (7-8-1)
The Giants were the most inconsistent team in 2012. New York pounded Green Bay 38-10, trounced San Fran 26-3 and scored 40-plus points in four other games, but was blown out by Cincinnati, Atlanta and Baltimore en route to missing the playoffs.

Arizona (7-8-1)
The Cardinals were the talk of the league early last season, covering their first three games – including victories over the Seahawks and Patriots. Then reality sunk in. Arizona went 4-8-1 ATS the rest of the way, with the lowlight being a 58-0 loss at Seattle.

Chicago (7-9)
Da Bears beat up on weaklings early in 2012, blowing out Indianapolis (in Week 1), St. Louis, Jacksonville and Tennessee. When the schedule got tougher, however, Chicago finished with a 3-8-1 run against the spread.

San Diego (7-9)
Despite being one of the most disappointing teams in the league last season, the Chargers were underdogs only twice in their first eight games and caught more than a field goal just three times all year. San Diego’s talent makes it tough for oddsmakers to give them a lot of points.

Buffalo (7-9)
When the Bills lost last year, they generally lost big. Six of Buffalo’s 10 losses came by double digits, making it tough to cover even the most generous of spreads. On the plus side, the Bills were 5-2 ATS as a favourite.

NY Jets (7-9)
The Jets were a circus last year but their defence still demands respect from oddsmakers. New York caught more than a touchdown twice in 2012, covering both times.

Jacksonville (7-9)
The Jags didn’t deserve a lot of respect last year, and they didn’t get much. Jacksonville was a underdog of 14 or more points three times, covering all of those games. In the one game the Jaguars were favoured, they lost by 17 points to Cincy.

Baltimore (6-9-1)
Funny for the Super Bowl champion to have such a dismal record against the spread, but don’t forget the Ravens didn’t catch fire until the last quarter of the season. Baltimore was 2-5 ATS as underdogs during the regular season, then won playoff games as dogs of 9.5 points at Denver, 8 points at New England and 4.5 points against San Fran.

Pittsburgh (6-9-1)
Despite having the league’s top defence once again in 2012, the Steelers weren’t good to bettors. Pittsburgh plays a lot of close games so it shouldn’t come as a total shock that the Steelers were 3-6 ATS as favourites of a field goal or greater.

Dallas (6-10)
America’s Team always gets plenty of betting support, particularly at home. Inflated lines at Texas Stadium might explain why the Cowboys were 1-7 ATS at home and a respectable 5-3 on the road.

Tennessee (6-10)
The Titans’ losses came by 21, 28, 24, 23, 6, 31, 5, 14, 4 and 48 points. It’s hard to back Tennessee unless you think the Titans can win the game straight up.

Detroit (6-10)
Maybe it’s those beautiful blue uniforms or admiration for Calvin Johnson, but the Lions got a ton of respect for a 4-12 team. Detroit was favoured eight times last year, four times by six points or more. As a favourite, the Lions were 2-6 ATS.

Oakland (5-11)
Oddsmakers couldn’t make spreads high enough for the hapless Raiders last year. Oakland was 2-6 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or more in 2012.

Kansas City (5-11)
The Chiefs were awful (2-14 overall), but at least they did show some fight. KC won in New Orleans as a 9-point dog and also covered as a 12.5-point dog at Pittsburgh and a 10-point home dog to Denver.

Philadelphia (3-12-1)
No doubt the biggest disappointment in the NFL last year, the Eagles were favoured in six of their first seven games. Philly actually opened the season with just one cover in its first 11 games before getting “hot” with a 2-3 ATS run to end the campaign. Once things went off the rails in Philadelphia, the Eagles appeared to throw in the towel on former coach Andy Reid.