NFL Week 4 Opening Line Report

The Superdome in New Orleans is once again a tough place for visiting teams. Photo by David Reber's Hammer Photography
The Superdome in New Orleans is once again a tough place for visiting teams. (Photo by David Reber’s Hammer Photography)

NFL Week 4 Opening Line Report

San Francisco at St. Louis (49ers -3, O/U 42)
The 49ers opened as 3.5-point favourites in this one, but were quickly bet down to field-goal chalk. The total also dropped two points from the opener of 44. Both moves seem to be in reaction to how bad the Niners offence has looked the past two weeks, particularly against a mediocre Colts defence. San Fran’s read-option attack appears to be fooling nobody these days, and playing in the Thursday nighter doesn’t give Jim Harbaugh and company a lot of time to figure things out.

Pittsburgh at Minnesota (Steelers -1, O/U 42)
Interesting that a struggling Steelers squad is favoured on the road against a team that made the playoffs last season, but that just tells you how bad things are in Minnesota these days. It’s tough to want a piece of either of these two squads, both of whom are seeking their first win of the season. At least the Vikings have been close, leading their last two games in the final minute. The total has risen from an opener of 39, and it’s not hard to figure out why. Minny’s first three games have sailed over the total by an average of 20 points.

Seattle at Houston (Seahawks -3, O/U 43)
This game opened as a pick ’em, but who doesn’t want their money on Seattle these days? Next to Denver, the Seahawks might be the most impressive team in the NFL this year, routing San Francisco in Week 2 and then dismantling Jacksonville in a prime letdown spot on Sunday. Including the preseason, Seattle has lost just once in its past 14 games — the one loss coming by two points to Atlanta in last year’s playoffs. Houston has not looked too impressive this year, rallying from a big deficit to edge the Chargers in the opener and then needing overtime to defeat the Titans before falling last week in Baltimore. But the Texans have shown a tendency to step up their game when hosting elite competition, going 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record. The total has ticked up from an opener of 41.5.

N.Y. Giants at Kansas City (Chiefs -4.5, O/U 44)
Two teams going in opposite directions here, which explains why the Chiefs are significantly favoured. Interestingly, the line has moved back to the Giants slightly after opening at 5 points. New York should be motivated to erase the memories of last week’s embarrassing performance in Carolina, when the Giants were outgained by 252 yards. KC has had a lot of preparation time after slowing down Michael Vick and the Eagles in last week’s Thursday nighter. The Chiefs are tied with New England for second in the NFL for fewest points allowed this season (11.3 per game).

Baltimore at Buffalo (Ravens -3.5, O/U 44)
One of the biggest line moves this week as the Bills opened as 6-point home underdogs but are now catching 3.5. Baltimore could be without Ray Rice for a second straight week, though the Ravens didn’t need their star RB to defeat the Texans last week. Bills have been competitive in all three of their games so far, with the first two decided in the final minute and last week’s contest tied in the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (Bengals -4.5, O/U 41.5)
Both teams are coming off emotional victories, with the Bengals rallying to defeat Green Bay at home and the Browns earning their first win of the season with a last-minute touchdown at Minnesota. Cincy opened as a 6-point favourite but is now down to 4.5 at many sportsbooks, as bettors seem impressed with Browns third-string QB Brian Hoyer. The home team has dominated recent meetings between these AFC North Rivals, winning six of the last seven games in the series.

Arizona at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -3, O/U 40.5)
A lot of respect here for a winless Bucs squad, making them a 3-point favourite, but the Cardinals aren’t exactly the ’72 Dolphins. Both Tampa and Arizona got spanked in their last outings, each losing by 20 points or more. The Bucs have been held to 17 points or less in each of their first three games.

Chicago at Detroit (Lions -3, O/U 47.5)
The undefeated Bears opened as 2-point underdogs at the Lions, and that line has since increased to a field goal. That’s interesting, because Chicago has won four of its last five trips to Detroit. Both teams looked good last week, Chicago handling the Steelers on Sunday Night and the Lions earning a seven-point victory in Washington. Reggie Bush is listed as probable to return to the Detroit lineup after a one-week absence.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Colts -8.5, O/U 43)
You might see the Colts listed as -9.5 at plus juice, but that’s only because oddsmakers are trying to protect against 6-point teasers. If they send the Colts out at -8.5, bettors can tease them down under a field goal, so oddsmakers list -9.5 at +110 odds (basically the same as -8.5 -110). There’s no question that Indy should win this one, but the biggest variable is whether the Colts will suffer an emotional letdown after their big win over San Fran last week. Jacksonville sucks, there’s no two ways about it, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. The total has risen two points from the opener.

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (Titans -4.5, O/U 39)
The Titans are one of the NFL’s surprise stories this season, 2-1 with their only loss coming in overtime at Houston. But being favoured by 6 points at home, as the line opened Tennesse at, is obviously too much for bettors, who bet the line down to 4.5. The Jets are 2-1 themselves, overcoming a barrage of penalties to defeat the Bills last week. New York has covered five of the last six meetings between the teams.

Dallas at San Diego (Cowboys -1.5, O/U 45.5)
The Cowboys are riding high, routing the Rams by 24 points last week and leading the NFC East with a 2-1 record. Early support in this game has been on Dallas, moving the Cowboys from pick to 2-point favourites at some sportsbooks. Expect a tight game in this one as all three of the Chargers’ games this season have been decided by 3 points. San Diego QB Philip Rivers is taking better care of the ball this season, keeping his team in the game.

Washington at Oakland (Redskins -3, O/U not available)
The status of Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor (concussion) has left many sportsbooks unwilling to post an early line on this one. The ones that have, however, make the winless Skins a 3-point road favourite. While Washington has been a disappointment, Oakland has been surprisingly decent this season — losing by four at Indy, defeating the Jags by 10 points and then earning a late push in Denver Monday.

Philadelphia at Denver (Broncos -11, O/U 58)
No line seems high enough — both spread and total — when it comes to Broncos games this season. Denver easily covered its first two games before pushing as 16-point faves Monday against Oakland, and the Broncos have gone over the total by nearly 17 points per contest. The Eagles’ fast-paced attack hit a road block last week against the Chiefs, scoring only 16 points in a 10-point loss at home. It will be interesting to see if Philly coach Chip Kelly tries to slow things down against a much more potent Denver attack.

New England at Atlanta (Falcons -1.5, O/U 49.5)
Desperation time for Atlanta, which needs a victory at home to avoid a 1-3 start. The Falcons remain without several injured starters, but this seems like a good spot to back an Atlanta team that is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following a straight-up loss. Tom Brady and the Pats are 3-0, bt they have failed to score more than 23 points in any of their games this season.

Miami at New Orleans (Saints -6.5, O/U 47.5)
Plenty of love for the Saints here as they’ve been bet up from an opening line of 3.5 to nearly touchdown chalk. Miami is banged up, but still had enough to muster up a come-from-behind win over the Falcons last week. New Orleans appears to be returning to form of two years ago, though the Saints are actually winning with defence instead of offence. New Orleans has held its opponents to under 13 points a game, going under the total by 10 points or more in each of its first three contests.