Toronto fans have become very frustrated with the Leafs recent play. (Photo credit: grilled cheese / Foter / CC BY-ND)
It’s been another wild week in NHL betting with the Sabres and Flames pulling off a couple of upsets, the Leafs soiling themselves and the Stars continuing to struggle.
Sports Interaction takes a look at the recent NHL betting picture and answers a few questions for us. (Statistics current going into Thursday, November 20 action.)
How do oddsmakers deal with teams on extended hot or cold streaks? Can a string of good or bad games make a big difference in upcoming odds these teams will see?
It really depends on what you’d consider “extended” and the factors behind those streaks. If a Stanley Cup contender beats up on five or six teams in a row, nobody bats an eyelash. If a team like Buffalo wins five or six straight, that’s a different story. Again, depends on the team.
Streaks have less impact on the opening odds than line moves after the odds come out. From there, we have to follow the market – largely dictated by the betting public – so if a weak team gets on a roll, make sure you’re dialed into possible line moves. That’s when you can see significant line swings.
So what do you make of the Toronto Maple Leafs right now? They have lost three in a row, the last two of which were nasty blowouts. Have betting patterns from Leafs fans changed much during their recent troubles?
Toronto isn’t known as the “Centre of the Hockey Universe” for nothing. The thing about the Leafs is that we’ll always see loyal support from their bettors. They’re one of the most public teams in the league and that doesn’t change with a couple of bad losses. You’ll still see a bit of a “Leafs tax” on their lines just due to the amount of action we see from Toronto bettors.
It’s important for bettors to block out the media buzz though. Sure the Leafs have struggled lately, but how bad are they really? They’re still a game above .500 and they’re one point behind the Chicago Blackhawks! Don’t let media hype sway your betting.
What’s been the hottest wager in NHL betting over the last week?
The Calgary Flames have been the hottest team in the NHL for a while now. They’re 7-3-1 in their last 10 and have won three in a row. Considering they were favored in just three of those games, that translates into a healthy profit for Flames supporters. Keeping up this pace is unrealistic, but this team is going to be an excellent puckline bet all season if the goaltending holds.
The Flames have a great young nucleus with strong veteran leadership. That’s just what sharp underdog bettors are looking for – a team that can keep it close and doesn’t back down from anybody.
Finally, which team has made life miserable for bettors so far this season?
The Dallas Stars, by a landslide. This was a team that was supposed to tear up the West after bringing in Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky. That hasn’t happened. It often takes some time for a team to find where new members fit in, so while we can still make the Stars nightly favorites against the vast majority of the NHL, it’s more to do with the names on the back of their sweaters than how good this team really is. Square bettors see Benn, Seguin, Spezza and the gang and immediately think they’re the better team.
The fact of the matter is Dallas is the worst puckline team in the NHL at 6-13 which translates into -12.42 units for their supporters. There’s no such thing as a strict “stay away” team, but the Stars are pretty close to that right now. Simply, they’re much worse than public perception.