3 Reasons To Bet On Underdog Penguins In Game 4


The Nashville Predators were pretty solid favourites to win Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday, and they’re even bigger favourites for tonight’s Game 4.

Nashville opened as -150 favourites on the moneyline at Pinnacle, and that number had gone up as high as -160 by Monday morning at Sports Interaction. Just like the first 3 games of the series, the total (Over/Under) has been set at 5.5.

Penguins/Predators Stanley Cup Final Game 4 Odds At Pinnacle

 

Nashville was a -140 favourite on the early betting lines for Game 3, though money on the Predators moved them to the -150 range at most sportsbooks by game time.

After the Preds whipped Pittsburgh 5-1, appearing to expose some holes in Matt Murray and the Penguins defense, it won’t be a surprise to see Nashville get a lot of the betting money once again today, and the Predators could go up to -160 across the board.

As the price goes up on Nashville, however, more and value opens on the Penguins. They’ve been underdogs of +140 or more just 3 times in these playoffs, and they’re 2-1 in that situation (all in the Washington series).

Here are 3 more reasons to consider the Penguins at this nice underdog price on the Stanley Cup Final Game 4 odds.

3 Reasons To Bet Pittsburgh In Game 4

1. Matt Murray and the Penguins usually bounce back well

Nashville got a lot of attention going into Game 2 because of the fact the Preds had not lost consecutive games in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Pittsburgh’s been nearly as good in that situation this spring as well.

The Pens have lost back-to-back games just once in the playoffs, and that was to the President’s Trophy-winning Capitals in Round 2. Also, Murray is 7-0 following a loss in his brief postseason career.

2. Shots on goal are misleading

Don’t put too much stock in the shots on goal stat when it comes to the Penguins.

They were outshot by an average of nearly 39-34 in their 5-game series win over the Blue Jackets in Round 1, and they rank 13th out of 16 teams in the NHL playoffs in shot differential per game (-3.5).

With a thin defense corps in the absence of Kris Letang, Pittsburgh will allow lots of shots. But they’ve been winning because of their excellent goaltending and because they convert on their scoring chances.

Coach Mike Sullivan doesn’t seem to be concerned about the shot totals, and Pens backers shouldn’t be either.

3. More pressure on Predators than Penguins

All the pressure here is still on Nashville.

If the Predators don’t win tonight, they’ll go to Pittsburgh knowing that there’s a possibility that the series will end in Game 5. But if the Penguins lose, they head home where they’ll host 2 of the final 3 games in the series.

The Predators responded well in Game 3, but that’s when everybody was already counting them out. Now that people believe they have a chance again (including the Penguins, who should be much more desperate tonight), it’s a bit of a different mentality.

In the Penguins’ 4 previous Stanley Cup wins, none of those championships were clinched at home. You know the Penguins would love to break that trend if given the opportunity with a 3-1 series lead in Game 5.