They say that the best bets are often the ones that are hardest to make.
If that’s the case, betting the under in Sunday’s Philadelphia/Denver game should be the lock of the century.
There doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect the Eagles and Broncos to play a low-scoring game this weekend. They are the top two offences in yards per game this season, and Denver is averaging a ridiculous 42.3 points per contest – enough to exceed many NFL over/unders on its own. Defensively, the Eagles have allowed the third-most yards in the league through three games while the Broncos are 20th.
There is one reason, however, to like the under in this matchup, and it’s a big one. A big number, to be more precise.
Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 57.5. If that doesn’t seem extremely high, consider that two games this week saw the total open in the 30s (Pittsburgh at Minnesota opened at 39, NY Jets at Tennessee opened at 38.5). Five more games had totals of 43 or less — more than two touchdowns lower than Philly/Denver. The second-highest total of the week (New England at Atlanta) is eight points less than the Eagles/Broncos line.
The highest total in the first three weeks was Atlanta and New Orleans in Week 1 (54.5 points). It went under by more than two touchdowns.
And don’t forget oddsmakers prepared for fireworks in the Eagles’ last game, setting the total at 50 for Philly’s home game against the Chiefs. The teams combined for just 42 points.
There’s no doubt that there is value in this week’s inflated total of 57.5 points. Name one recreational bettor who isn’t looking forward to watching the scoreboard blow up on Sunday. Just a few nights ago, the Broncos scored 37 points and the total ended at 58. It’s obviously not an easy hurdle to clear.
But are there any other arguments why this game might be lower-scoring than everyone thinks?
Maybe the altitude of Denver will make it difficult for the Eagles to run their fast-paced attack. Philly’s offence isn’t the most efficient in the league, it just runs more plays than anybody else. That’s hard to do when you’re sucking wind because you’re a mile above sea level.
Maybe the Eagles will deliberately choose to milk the play clock a little more because they know the faster they play, the more chances Peyton Manning will have with the ball as well. The blueprint for beating any good quarterback is to keep him off the field by controlling the ball. Philly has the best running game in the NFL, so you have to think they could eat up some clock if they want to.
Maybe Denver’s offensive production is going to regress this week. It has to at some point. There’s no way the Broncos can average 40-plus points a game throughout the season. Last year’s points-per-game leader, New England (34.8), was the only offence in the league to average more than 30.1. No team has averaged more than 35 points per game since the Patriots scored 36.8 points per contest in 2007.
Betting unders isn’t fun, especially in a game that features two potent offensive attacks. If you can’t stomach betting the under in this game, we don’t blame you. At the very least, hopefully you’ll think twice before blindly betting the over because it seems like easy money. At 57.5 points (and that number will likely rise before kickoff), it isn’t.