Square NFL Betting Picks For Week 3

The Raiders and Broncos are one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL.
The Raiders and Broncos are one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL.
Photo courtesy DJ Spiess (www.fermentarium.com)

Every week, there are games where it seems like a no-brainer that a team will cover the spread.

And every Monday, it seems we are scratching our heads about those couple games that didn’t go the way we were convinced they would. Some suggest Vegas set a ‘trap’, tricking them into taking one team over the other. Others insist on the ‘fix’, believing the only way their bet didn’t win was because the game was rigged.

A good rule of thumb when doing your NFL betting picks is to try and find reasons to bet on both sides. If you can’t find any reason to bet on or against a team based on the point spread, or if a point spread seems “too easy”, you’re likely missing something important that oddsmakers have factored into the line.

Here are four games in Week 3 that most square bettors won’t think twice about. We’re not suggesting they’ll lose all of these games, but we’re sure things won’t be as easy as they appear, either.

Denver -14.5 vs. Oakland

The Broncos are the apple of many bettors’ eyes this season, covering both their games in comfortable fashion. It’s easy to fall in love with a squad that has scored 40-plus points against both the Ravens and the Giants, and why shouldn’t we expect at least 40 points from the Broncos when they are home to the hapless Raiders on Monday Night Football?

Before completely dismissing Oakland’s chances this week, however, make sure to take notice of the league-high 5.93 yards per rush the Raiders offence is averaging through two games. Oakland’s defence also ranks fifth in the league in yards allowed per game and is tied for the league lead with nine sacks.

As a final note, these teams are fierce AFC West rivals. Oakland has covered six of its last seven trips to Denver, and the road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.

Seattle -19.5 vs. Jacksonville

Who wasn’t impressed by the Seahawks’ domination of San Fran on Sunday night? Seattle manhandled Colin Kaepernick, picking the 49ers QB off three times and holding him to 127 passing yards, and the Seahawks held the ball for nearly 37 minutes. Meanwhile, the Jags are a predictable 0-2 this season, ranking dead last in the league in two offensive categories: total yards and points scored.

There are a couple reasons to be wary of Jacksonville plus the points in this one, however. First of all, 20-point spreads are ridiculously uncommon in the NFL. Since 2002, approximately 80 per cent of games have decided by less than 20 points.

Secondly, the Jags might be putrid on offence but they’re actually respectable on D. Jacksonville is ninth in yards allowed, second in passing yards allowed and 17th in points allowed this season.

Finally, this is a classic sandwich letdown spot for the Seahawks. Seattle was absolutely pumped for Sunday’s showdown with the Niners, and the Hawks visit Houston in Week 4. It’s hard to imagine Seattle players getting pumped up to face the lowly Jaguars, isn’t it?

Atlanta +1 at Miami

On the surface, Atlanta catching points at Miami seems like a gift. The Falcons have not finished below .500 since 2007 and reached the 13-win plateau in two of the past three seasons. The Dolphins are 2-0, but one of those wins came over the Browns, and Miami has been below .500 six of the past seven campaigns.

One reason to like the Fish in this one, however, is the fact that Atlanta might be without RB Steven Jackson (questionable, thigh injury). Jackson has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in two games for Atlanta.

The Falcons also aren’t quite the same team on the road as they are in the Georgia Dome. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games at home. And Atlanta’s defence ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed and 29th against the pass.

Minnesota -5.5 vs. Cleveland

This seems like a nice spot to back the Vikings, a team that made the playoffs last year and should be desperate after starting this season 0-2. Minny will be pumped up for its home opener after dropping tough games at the Lions and Bears. Cleveland looks like the same old Browns, 0-2 and ranking 28th in total offensive yards, 29th in rushing and 31st in points for.

Before you rush off to bet on the Vikings winning by more than a field goal, however, don’t forget that Minnesota’s defence isn’t exactly a brick wall. The Vikes rank in the bottom six in the league in yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and points allowed. That’s not a stop unit you want protecting a late lead, even as bad as the Browns’ offence has been.