With just four weeks to go in the NFL regular season, the postseason picture is rapidly coming into focus.
That makes it an ideal time to re-examine this year’s Super Bowl odds and identify which teams might make us a few bucks when the big game takes place February 6 at Cowboys Stadium.
All odds are from 5Dimes.
New England Patriots (+450)
The Patriots sure looked like the team to beat on Monday Night Football this past week, pasting the rival Jets 45-3. That victory was huge for New England, giving the Pats a one-game lead in the AFC East and the inside track on home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Don’t underestimate the importance of home field advantage, particularly when that home field is Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady has won 26 straight regular-season games at home, an NFL record.
Speaking of Brady, he’s directed New England to 39, 31, 45 and 45 point outputs the past four weeks. If the Patriots offence keeps lighting up the scoreboard at that rate, that should be more than enough to make up for a defence that is ranked 31st in both total yards and passing yards allowed this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+625)
The road to the Super Bowl often goes through Steeltown, and this year doesn’t look like it’ll be any different. Pittsburgh took a big step towards winning the AFC North with a come-from-behind victory in Baltimore Sunday night and appears on its way to a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The Steelers’ defence looks as good as ever. They rank first in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, second in points allowed and fifth in total yards allowed.
On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s offence hasn’t looked too scary in recent weeks, and the Steelers did lose at home to New England a couple weeks ago.
Atlanta Falcons (+650)
The Falcons are the best team in football that no one ever talks about. There are certainly flashier and sexier teams in the NFL, but Atlanta just wins games. 10 of its first 12 this year, to be exact.
Atlanta looks quite likely to finish first in the NFC and earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That’s important because the Falcons have only been beaten once in the Georgia Dome with Matt Ryan under center.
Green Bay Packers (+1000)
Is it possible for Green Bay, perhaps the most public of all public teams, to be underrated? Yes, it is. The Packers have only lost four games this year, and all of those losses have come by a field goal. Aaron Rodgers is having a dynamite year and his receiving tandem of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver stacks up with any other duo in the league.
Defence, however, is what makes the Pack dangerous. Green Bay has allowed the fewest points in the league this season, a miserly 15.2 per game.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1075)
Two words make Philly a serious Super Bowl contender: Michael Vick. The former Falcons star looks even better after a couple years in the clink, leading the Eagles to the most yards of offence in the league this year. He is the same threat with his legs that he always was, but Vick is much more accurate throwing the ball and has hardly turned the ball over at all this year.
Defensively, however, Philly doesn’t scare anyone. If the Eagles are going to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season, they’ll need to keep scoring plenty of points – something that gets harder to do in the cold against quality defences.
Other notables include the defending champion Saints (+1100), the Ravens (+1400), Jets (+1500), Giants (+1600), Chargers (+1800) and Bears (+2300).