Patriots Super Bowl Favourites After Week 5

Any concerns that Tom Brady might be rusty after missing four games were put to rest with his 400+ yards and 3 touchdowns against the Browns. (Photo credit: Keith Allison via Foter.com / CC BY-SA)

It’s hard to believe, but we’re already one third through the 2016 NFL season. And there have been some huge surprises this year.

Many thought the Vikings were done after they lost Teddy Bridgewater and then Adrian Peterson, but Minnesota is the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL.

Who expected the Falcons to be the highest-scoring team in the NFL and to be 4-1, including wins over Carolina and in Denver?

And speaking of Carolina, the Panthers are the biggest disappointment in the league so far, stumbling to a 1-4 start.

But how has it affected the 2016 Super Bowl odds?

Here’s a look at the top 5 Super Bowl favourites through Week 5.

1. New England Patriots (+400)


The Pats opened the season second to Green Bay on the Super Bowl odds, paying +650.

The biggest reason New England wasn’t the favourite was because of concern how the team would do without Tom Brady for the first 4 weeks of the year, but the Pats definitely answered the bell. Not only did they go 3-1 without the Golden Boy, they also won as 9-point underdogs in Arizona and then hammered the Texans 27-0 despite being down to their third-string quarterback.

Brady returned last week and showed no rust, throwing for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Pats’ 33-13 rout in Cleveland. New England has a couple of tough games over the next four weeks (at Pittsburgh, home to Seattle), but then they play a 3-game stretch that includes games at the 49ers, at the Jets, and home to the Rams.

The Patriots’ success this season has been keyed by their play on the ground. New England ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and their defence ranks 9th in rushing yards allowed. Now that Brady is back under centre and opponents have to respect the Pats’ passing game more, those rushing stats on offence could get even better.

The Patriots are -1000 favourites to win the AFC East, even though the 3-2 Bills are just 1 game behind them and have already beat them in Foxboro. But New England can settle the score with the Bills when it visits Orchard Park Oct. 30, and Brady is 25-3 lifetime against the Bills.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+650)


Pittsburgh began the year at +1100 on the Super Bowl odds, but those odds have nearly been cut in half after a 4-1 start to the year.

Not only have the Steelers looked impressive (all 4 of their wins have come by 8 or more points, and 3 of them came by 18+), they’re also looking pretty good to win the AFC North with Baltimore having dropped 2 straight and already firing its offensive co-ordinator. Ben Roethlisberger is shredding opposing defences through the air once again, ranking third in the NFL in passing yards.

However, Steelers backers have to be concerned with a defence that ranks third-last in the league against the pass and 25th overall in yards allowed.

Also, Pittsburgh still needs to prove it can light up the scoreboard away from Heinz Field. Big Ben has 12 TDs and 2 interceptions in 3 home games, but just 3 TDs and 2 picks in the Steelers’ 2 road games this season. It’s a trend that dates back to last year, when Roethlisberger had a 16:7 TD:interception ratio at home and 5:9 on the road.

Pittsburgh still has to play Baltimore twice, visit Cincinnati, and play home games vs Dallas and New England. They also get to beat up on the Browns twice, but a first-round bye is no guarantee for the Steelers, especially with Denver and Oakland both at 4:1 as well in the AFC West.

3. Green Bay Packers (+700)


Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offence has yet to fire on all cylinders, but Green Bay is still 3-1 and just within striking distance of unbeaten Minnesota for top spot in the NFC North. Oddsmakers have downgraded the Pack’s Super Bowl odds slightly from +600 to +700, but they’re still the top-ranked team in the NFC.

Green Bay has yet to earn a statement victory. All 3 of its wins came by a touchdown or less, though the Packers jumped out to big leads in its last two wins before allowing Detroit and the Giants to make things close late.

Surprisingly, the Packers boast the NFL’s best rushing defence, allowing just 42.8 yards per game. Part of that may be that they’ve played with big leads in their last two games and their opponents have had to pass the ball to get back into the game, but it’s still a good sign for a Green Bay defence that was 21st in the league against the run last year (4.5 yards per carry against).

Green Bay is still favoured to win the NFC North over Minnesota (Packers are -125, Vikings are +100) but they’ll need to win their rematch with Minny in Week 16 at Lambeau Field.

Other key tests include this week at home to Dallas, a visit to the Falcons Oct. 30 and a home game against Seattle Dec. 11.

4. Seattle Seahawks (+800)


The Seahawks have been a difficult team to get a read on this season. They struggled out of the gate, nearly losing at home to Miami and then losing 9-3 to the Rams the following week. Since then, they blew out the 49ers and then earned a road victory over the Jets before enjoying a bye week. Seattle’s Super Bowl odds have improved narrowly from +900 to +800.

Seattle’s defence has been excellent once again this year. The Seahawks rank first in total yards allowed, second in passing yards allowed, third in points against and seventh in rushing yards allowed.

The offence, however, remains a work in progress.

Russell Wilson has not got untracked yet, though he’s been banged up and has also been developing a chemistry with TE Jimmy Graham. And the running game seems to miss Marshawn Lynch, ranking 18th in the league in rushing yards per game.

Seattle is -200 to win the NFC West after the Cardinals have stubbed their toes to a 2-3 start to the year. The Seahawks have their work cut out for them in their remaining schedule, beginning with a visit from the Falcons this week. They’ll also have 2 games against Arizona, visits to New England and Green Bay, and home games versus Philadelphia and Carolina.

5. Minnesota Vikings (+900)


The Vikings didn’t get a ton of respect to begin with, paying +2500 on the Super Bowl odds before the season began. Then Adrian Peterson got sidelined along with starting QB Teddy Bridgewater, and all of a sudden Minnesota was given up for dead.

Minny’s players seem to have thrived on the adversity, charging out of the gate with a 5-0 record (they’re also 5-0 against the spread). Next to the Falcons, who have moved from +6600 to +1400, Minnesota has seen the biggest improvement on the 2016 Super Bowl odds board.

The key in Minnesota has been defence. The Vikings rank first in points allowed and fourth in total yards. They’ve also thrived on turnovers, forcing 2.4 per game.

Defence and turnovers can only take you so far, however. The Vikings offence ranks dead last in the league in rushing yards per game and third-last in total yards.

Minnesota’s remaining schedule includes games in Philadelphia, Washington and Green Bay, as well as visits from Dallas and Arizona.

Updated Super Bowl Odds After Week 5 (Odds Courtesy Sports Interaction)

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