The Vegas Butcher, also known as Bodio, is one of the most-respected young handicappers in the sportsbetting industry.
He specializes in Major League Baseball and the NBA, but also releases NHL betting picks based on “reverse odds movement”, a term for when most people are betting on one side but the odds keep moving the other direction. This is typically an indication of “sharp” money coming in on the team that few people appear to be betting on.
Here’s a Vegas Butcher free pick for tonight’s NBA action. So far this NBA season, the Vegas Butcher has won 55 % of his bets for a profit of +14 units. If you like his analysis and want to find more, the Vegas Butcher sells annual subscriptions to his website. Check out his site for more information.
Milwaukee Bucks -5
Revenge game for Milwaukee here after they lost to Utah about a month ago. The Bucks were playing on b2b, 4th game in 6 nights, and were coming off a very high-paced game @ Denver the night prior. Utah was playing their 7th home game out of the last 9 and had a day-off prior to that matchup. To complicate the matters, the Bucks were without either one of their starting front-court players as both Sanders and Mbah a Moute were out with injuries. Not surprisingly the Jazz had a 20 point PIP advantage (56 to 36), dominated the rebounds (57%), and had 17 offensive boards leading to a number of second-chance opportunities. Jefferson and Milsap combined to go 16 for 27 from the field (59%) with 38 points, 17 rebounds, 8 assists, and 4 blocks. Today I expect a different result. Not sure if Milsap and Jefferson will suit up (they’re listed as questionable/GTD), but both Sanders and Mbah a Moute will. Sanders is -7 in net defensive-differential when he’s on the court and Mbah a Moute is -3, indicating their importance to Milwaukee’s D. They’re a huge part of the reason why Milwaukee ranks 4th in defending the rim this season, allowing only 61% around the basket. If the Bucks can control their interior D, their 7th ranked Spot-Up D, 8th ranked 3PT D, and 10th ranked P&R D should make it difficult for Utah to score as long-range shooting is not the strength of this team. On the other end, Utah’s 29th ranked Spot Up D and 23rd ranked 3PT D won’t be able to contain Milwaukee’s perimeter players, who have only gotten stronger since the first meeting with the acquisition of JJ Redick. Utah is 10-18 ATS on the road and only 1-4 ATS in the last 5 roadies. I think Milwaukee is a tough matchup for this team and I like the Bucks’ chances of avenging their earlier loss tonight.