Vegas Butcher NBA Betting Free Pick: Jazz at Cavaliers

The Vegas Butcher, also known as Bodio, is one of the most-respected young handicappers in the sportsbetting industry.

He specializes in Major League Baseball and the NBA, but also releases NHL betting picks based on “reverse odds movement”, a term for when most people are betting on one side but the odds keep moving the other direction. This is typically an indication of “sharp” money coming in on the team that few people appear to be betting on.

Here’s a Vegas Butcher free pick for tonight’s NBA action. So far this NBA season, the Vegas Butcher has won 55 % of his bets for a profit of +14 units. If you like his analysis and want to find more, the Vegas Butcher sells annual subscriptions to his website. Check out his site for more information.

Utah Jazz -1

Utah is only 10-20 on the road this year, but we have to be careful with that.  Not all ‘road games’ are created equally.  Let’s isolate Utah’s road-record to look at only the bottom-10 teams in the league (CHA, ORL, SAC, PHO, CLE, PHI, DET, WAS, NOH, MIN).  Against these teams, Utah has gone 8-5 on the road.  Furthermore, this team is 5-1 in their last 6 such games.  This indicates to me that Utah understands the importance of beating weak teams on the road as they’re vying for a playoff spot.  So today, Utah is taking on a bottom-10 team in Cleveland which is only 11-18 at home and 9-22 (29%) against teams with a winning record.  In addition, Cavs are only 5-19 (21%) against Western-Conference opponents.  I’ve also noticed that Cavs are 0-5 SU and ATS when listed as a home-underdog of 3 points or less this season.  Clearly the bookmakers have been over-valuing this team a bit in similar spots.  I know Al Jefferson is out for today, but Utah has excellent depth in their front-court.  Favors is an emerging super-star and Kanter is a hard-nosed developing player as well.  Combine them with Millsap and Utah should have a strong advantage in the paint against this undersized Cavs team.  In the two games that Jefferson missed so far Utah has averaged 22 offensive rebounds per game with 51 points in the paint (PIP).  And in the first meeting between the teams this season, Utah had +10 PIP differential and +16 FBP differential on a way to an 11-point home win.  Cleveland ranks 29th in Post-Up D (Millsap and Favors should dominate in the post tonight), 26th in defending the rim (67% allowed defensively), and 23rd in transition D (Utah is 9th with 15 FBP’s per game).  Unless Kyrie Irving has a monster game (unlikely as he’s admitted to playing hurt), it will be very hard for the Cavs to beat this Utah team tonight.