The Vegas Butcher, also known as Bodio, is one of the most-respected young handicappers in the sportsbetting industry.
He specializes in Major League Baseball and the NBA, but also releases NHL betting picks based on “reverse odds movement”, a term for when most people are betting on one side but the odds keep moving the other direction. This is typically an indication of “sharp” money coming in on the team that few people appear to be betting on.
Here’s a Vegas Butcher free pick for tonight’s NBA action. So far this NBA season, the Vegas Butcher has won 57 % of his bets for a profit of +15.5 units. If you like his analysis and want to find more, the Vegas Butcher sells annual subscriptions to his website for $600. Check out his site for more information.
Milwaukee Bucks +1 at Detroit Pistons
The Bucks are 0-2 against Detroit this season but both games were tough scheduling spots for Milwaukee. First one took place in Detroit on a back-to-back night, right after the Bucks beat Miami at home. The second one was at home but it was their 3rd game in 4 nights (and 5thin 8) and came after a big road win @ Chicago 2 days prior. Fatigue was clearly a problem as Milwaukee got outscored by 24 points in the 2nd half and ended up losing by 16. In both games, Detroit was well rested as they were at home and coming off a day off prior to facing the Bucks (actually it was only their 2 game in the last 5 days) the first time and were coming off a 4-day break prior to the 2nd meeting. Well, today the situation is a bit different. Pistons are coming off a tough 3-game road trip and playing their 5th game in 8 days, while this is Milwaukee’s 4th game in the same time-span and they’re coming off a 2-day break. In addition, two of Milwaukee’s previous 3 games were at home while the other one was a short trip away at Cleveland. Bottom line is that they should be much more rested for this contest than road-weary Pistons, who have to once again go on the road for tomorrow’s game @ Indiana. I absolutely love the spot for the Bucks. One key advantage for Milwaukee here is the TO-margin. While the Bucks rank as the 4th best team in TO-differential (#4 on offense / #5 defensively), Detroit is the 4th worst (#22 on offense / #27 defensively). Remember when the Pistons faced Miami a few games back, another team that protects the ball well and forces TO’s on D (they’re ranked 10th in TO-differential). They lost that game by 22, as the Pistons turned the ball over 18 times. Against a Magic team that ranks dead-last in TO-differential, Detroit had only 12 TO’s (and won the TO-battle) but still barely won the game against a bottom-5 Magic team. The Bucks are a bad matchup for Detroit and I look for Milwaukee to avenge their 2 losses to the Pistons tonight.