Seahawks at Packers is one of several great games lined up for us in Week 2 NFL betting. (Photo credit: Mike Morbeck / Foter / CC BY-SA)
One week is barely in the books this NFL season, and there’s already plenty to talk about.
How about the Steelers earning the backdoor cover in the season opener at New England? Here’s hoping you had either Patriots -3 (up to -7) or Steelers +7.5 and you weren’t hurt by that last-second TD.
There was also Buffalo’s dismantling of the Colts, the Rams’ upset of Seattle, San Diego’s comeback against the Lions, Marcus Mariota’s four-TD performance for the Titans against Tampa, and the Giants’ epic collapse in Dallas.
Even with all the unpredictability of Week 1, we went a profitable 9-7 with our Week 1 NFL leans.
Let’s take a look at what Week 2 has in store.
(Listed odds as of Monday, Sept. 14. For updated NFL betting lines, visit our Live Odds page. And for our weekly official NFL betting picks, be sure to subscribe to our free picks email list.)
Broncos at Chiefs (Kansas City -3, O/U 42)
A couple of years ago, oddsmakers couldn’t set point spreads or totals high enough for Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Now, they’re 3-point dogs on Thursday Night Football in KC with the total in the low 40s.
Denver gutted out a tough 19-13 win last week over Baltimore as defences provided the only two touchdowns of the game. Kansas City, meanwhile, put up 27 first-half points on Houston and held on for a 27-20 win.
If KC’s offence hadn’t looked so good in the opener and Denver’s looked so bad, we don’t think we’d be looking at a field goal spread here. That’s opened up some line value on the Broncos, who have covered five of their last six trips to Arrowhead.
Lean: Denver +3 -105 at
Texans at Panthers (Carolina -3, O/U 40.5)
Disappointing start to the year for the Texans, digging themselves a big first-half hole that they weren’t able to get out of against KC. Turnovers were costly for Houston, which outgained the Chiefs on the day. Carolina only had 263 total yards but used a defensive touchdown, three field goals and a solid defence to beat the Jags 20-9 in Week 1.
We see another defensive struggle in the cards here. The Panthers aren’t good enough on offence to pull away from anyone, and Houston’s attack isn’t scary either. Using a 6-point teaser to move Houston up over a touchdown seems to be the way to go.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Houston +9/Seattle +9 -110 at Pinnacle Sports
Buccaneers at Saints (New Orleans -10, O/U 47)
Are we missing something here? Yeah, Tampa’s bad, but how are the Saints laying double digits against anyone these days? Drew Brees regressed badly last year and only threw one TD pass in the opener, and New Orleans traded away its biggest weapon — TE Jimmy Graham — during the off-season. If the Saints are going to be good this year, it’ll be through running the ball and playing improved defence — hardly the formula for covering 10-point spreads.
Bucs QB Jameis Winston might have looked bad in his debut, throwing two picks and completing less than 50% of his passes, but perhaps he won’t feel as much pressure in his second NFL start and on the road.
Lean: Tampa Bay +10 -110
49ers at Steelers (Pittsburgh -6.5, O/U 45)
San Fran looked much better than we all expected in its opener, rushing for 230 yards and holding the Vikings to 248 total yards of offence in a 20-3 romp. The Steelers got down big early at New England before earning a backdoor cover with a TD with seconds left.
The stage is set for a bounceback effort from the Steelers here. Pittsburgh had no issues moving the ball against the Patriots but missed field goals and failed trick plays cost the Black and Gold. Meanwhile, San Fran comes in for a 1 p.m. eastern game that is like playing at 10 a.m. on their body clocks, and could be a little overconfident after the win over the Vikings.
Lean: Pittsburgh -6.5 -105 at BetOnline
Lions at Vikings (Minnesota -3, O/U 44)
Such disappointing openers for both teams, with the Lions blowing an 18-point lead in San Diego and Minny managing just a measly field goal at San Francisco.
These NFC North games are hard-fought, and both teams will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. Expect more defensive intensity from both sides — the Vikings allowed 230 rushing yards to the 49ers Monday, and the Lions surrendered nearly 400 yards through the air — and a low-scoring battle.
Lean: Under 44 -110 at BetOnline
Patriots at Bills (pick ’em, O/U 45)
Bills looked great in their first game under Rex Ryan, forcing three turnovers to whip the Colts 27-14 at home. New England also looked good in a 28-21 win over Pittsburgh, with Rob Gronkowski scoring three TDs.
If the Bills were 2.5-point underdogs last week at home to Indy, it seems funny that they’re only catching 1 from the defending Super Bowl champions. Especially when those champions have owned Buffalo over the years (9-2 ATS in their last 11 visits to Orchard Park) and have three extra days to prepare.
Lean: Patriots pk -110
Cardinals at Bears (Arizona -2, O/U 44.5)
Chicago already looks like an improved outfit this year, driving for what could have been a game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter versus Green Bay until Jay Cutler pulled a Jay Cutler and threw a game-costing interception.
Arizona somehow continues to fly under the radar, however. The Cardinals are 7-0 in games started by Carson Palmer, and he’ll be under centre once again this week. As long as this line is under a field goal, we expect the Cards to get the job done again.
Lean: Arizona -1.5 -110 at Pinnacle Sports
Titans at Browns (Cleveland -2, O/U 41.5)
What a debut that was for Titans QB Marcus Mariota! The Oregon product threw four touchdown passes and didn’t even need to play in the fourth quarter as Tennessee blasted the Bucs 42-14. The Browns, meanwhile, stumbled and bumbled their way to a 31-10 loss at the Jets, turning the ball over five times and losing starting QB Josh McCown to injury.
When the crappy team that looked like shit last week is favoured over the crappy team that looked great, it makes you think the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something. We don’t have a ton of faith in either of these teams, but we certainly don’t want to back the public darling (the Titans) this week.
Lean: Browns -2 -110 at BetOnline
Chargers at Bengals (Cincinnati -3, O/U 45.5)
Both teams come off a good win as the Bengals dominated the Raiders and the Chargers rallied from an early 21-3 deficit to defeat the Lions.
San Diego piled up nearly 500 yards of offence in the opener, while Cincy racked up nearly 400. We’ll admit, we don’t have a strong feeling about either team’s chances in this one, but we’ll give a slight lean to the over just for fun.
Lean: Over 45.5 -105 at Pinnacle Sports
Rams at Redskins (Rams -3, O/U 42)
Huge letdown spot for St. Louis, which is coming off an emotional come-from-behind win over the two-time NFC champion and division rival Seahawks in overtime. Now the Rams go on the road to face a Redskins team they’re expected to beat, and have a game against Pittsburgh to look ahead to in Week 3.
The Redskins actually played fairly well in their opener, losing to Miami on a punt return TD in the fourth quarter. If Washington can continue to run the ball effectively (161 rushing yards last week), the ’Skins’ issues at QB may not be too much to overcome. And if the line goes up to +3.5, it’s an even stronger lean.
Lean: Washington +3 +110 at 5Dimes
Falcons at Giants (New York -3, O/U 50)
Atlanta and New York both put forward impressive efforts in their openers. The Falcons surprised many with their home upset of the Eagles, and the Giants were seconds away from pulling off a stunner in Dallas on Sunday Night Football.
The biggest factor in this game could be each team’s emotional state. Will the Falcons be too pleased with themselves after the win over Philly to focus properly on this game? And can the Giants get over the fact that they would have beaten the division rival Cowboys had Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin not had colossal brain farts in the final minutes?
Lean: Giants -3 -115 at BetOnline
Ravens at Raiders (Baltimore -6, O/U 43)
Baltimore suffered a hard-fought loss in Denver last week and also lost heart-and-soul LB Terrell Suggs for the season. Fortunately, the Ravens get a reprieve this week with a visit to the Raiders, who looked no less pathetic than usual in their debut last week under Jack Del Rio.
Ordinarily, we’d be a bit concerned about Baltimore looking ahead to a divisional clash with the Bengals next week. But Baltimore’s offence was BAD in Week 1 — Joe Flacco threw for 117 yards and two interceptions — and John Harbaugh should have his team extra focused for this one. Oakland should be motivated as well, but that rarely seems to matter.
Lean: Ravens -6 -103 at Pinnacle Sports
Dolphins at Jaguars (Miami -6, O/U 41.5)
Miami hardly impressed us last week despite its 7-point road win over Washington. The Dolphins trailed until the fourth quarter, had just 74 rushing yards and held the ball for only 22 minutes. But the Fish returned a punt for a TD with 10 minutes left in the game to break a 10-10 tie.
Jacksonville lost by 11 at home to Carolina, but again the score was deceiving. The Jags were down one point until the Panthers returned an interception for a TD in the third quarter, and Jacksonville limited Carolina to 263 total yards.
Too many points to give an underrated Jacksonville team at home, in our opinion. If Carolina was -3 at Jacksonville, why is Miami -6?
Lean: Jaguars +6 -105 at Pinnacle Sports
Cowboys at Eagles (Philadelphia -5, O/U 55)
Dallas got away with one Sunday night, turning the ball over three times but still managing that last-second win over the Giants. Philadelphia was sluggish in the first half at Atlanta before finally getting the offence going, but a missed field goal proved costly in a loss to the Falcons.
There’s a lot of pressure in Philadelphia to get the job done here and avoid a two-game deficit to Dallas in the NFC East, which could hurt the home team. But the Cowboys are without Dez Bryant and their running game didn’t exactly look impressive in their first game without DeMarco Murray. Speaking of Murray, he’ll line up for the Eagles against his former team. We’ll look for jacked up defences, lots of running (which keeps the clock ticking) and not a lot of points in this one.
Lean: Under 55 -110 at BetOnline
Seahawks at Packers (Green Bay -3, O/U 48.5)
Can Seattle really start 0-2? It’s quite possible. Green Bay averaged nearly 40 points per game last season at Lambeau Field, and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been intercepted at home since 2012.
The Packers are 1-0 but they’ll be looking for an improved effort after gaining only 189 yards through the air at Chicago and allowing 400+ yards defensively to the Bears.
Green Bay is looking to avenge last year’s loss in the NFC Championship Game. Seattle is desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. This has all the makings of an extremely tight game, so teasing the Seahawks over a touchdown makes a lot of sense to us.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Seahawks +9/Texans +9 -110 at Pinnacle Sports
Jets at Colts (Indianapolis -7, O/U 47)
The Colts struggled in the rain last week in Buffalo, turning the ball over three times and losing T.Y. Hilton to injury. The Jets thrived on five Browns turnovers to easily win, 31-10.
So now we get an Indy team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, playing at home on Monday Night Football against a Jets squad that looked better on the scoreboard in Week 1 than they really are? This one could get ugly, fast.
Lean: Colts -6.5 -110 at Sports Interaction