It's essentially a must-win game this week for Joe Flacco and the Ravens. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
Week 2 of the NFL betting season was the week of the underdog.
Ten teams that were catching points won their games straight up, including the Buccaneers winning in New Orleans as 10-point dogs and the Jets (+7) winning by 13 in Indianapolis on Monday Night Football.
If you’re taking underdogs on the point spread, it’s often worth sprinkling a little bit on the moneyline as well. Tampa Bay paid +420 on the Sports Interaction moneyline odds, and Dallas paid +250. Picking underdogs is great with sportsbooks because, unlike Proline, they don’t need to win by more than 3. Just win, baby.
Our Week 2 NFL betting picks went 10-5, bumping our season record to 19-12 (61.2%)!
Let’s see if we can build on that momentum in Week 3.
(Listed odds as of Tuesday, Sept. 22. For updated NFL betting lines, visit our Live Odds page. And for our weekly official NFL betting picks, be sure to subscribe to our free picks email list.)
Redskins at Giants (New York -4, O/U 44)
The Giants are 0-2, but they could easily be 2-0. New York blew its opening game in Dallas with some horrific clock management in the final minute, and saw a 10-point fourth-quarter lead get away in Week 2’s loss to the Falcons.
Washington has actually been fairly impressive this season, losing its opener versus Miami on a punt return TD and then downing the Rams 24-10 Sunday.
Taking the points has worked for us in most recent NFC East matchups, and that might be the way to go here. The Giants are certainly capable of winning this game, but we’re not sure they can win it by a comfortable margin.
Lean: Washington +4 -108 at Pinnacle Sports
Steelers at Rams (Pittsburgh -1, O/U 47.5)
A lot of people were high on St. Louis after an opening-week upset of the Seahawks, but the Rams then (predictably) laid an egg in Washington.
Pittsburgh rebounded from a Week 1 loss in New England by whipping the 49ers 43-18 at home, rolling up nearly 300 yards by halftime.
The Steelers’ offence is excellent, and the Rams’ is not. That’s enough for us to lean Pittsburgh in this one.
Lean: Pittsburgh -1 -105 at
Chargers at Vikings (Minnesota -2, O/U 45)
Sunday, Minnesota looked much more like the team we expected them to be this year, rushing for nearly 200 yards in a 10-point win over the Lions. The Vikings also forced three turnovers on defence.
San Diego moved the ball fairly well against a tough Cincy defence but couldn’t overcome three turnovers of its own in a 24-19 loss.
After the Bengals put up 175 rushing yards against San Diego, we’re intrigued by how many yards on the ground Adrian Peterson and the Vikings could put up.
Lean: Minnesota -2 -110 at Pinnacle Sports
Buccaneers at Texans (Houston -7, O/U 40.5)
Jameis Winston’s second game was so much better than his first. The Florida State product threw for a TD, ran for another and was not intercepted as the Bucs upset the Saints as a 10-point underdog.
The Texans are still struggling to get their offence going, rushing for only 61 yards in a 24-17 loss at Carolina. With pedestrian QB Ryan Mallett, Houston is finding opponents stacking the box to stuff the run and make the Texans beat them through the air.
A touchdown spread may look high here, but Tampa is in a letdown spot while the Texans are desperate. We’re confident Houston wins but we can’t lay a TD with this offence, so we’ll tease Houston down to -1 with a 6-point NFL teaser.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Houston -1/Arizona pk ’em -110 at Pinnacle Sports
Eagles at Jets (New York -2.5, O/U n/a)
Philly actually opened as the favourite in this one, but money quickly came in on the Jets to flip the line around. And why not? Philly looked like a total disaster Sunday in falling to 0-2, while New York upset the Colts 20-7 on Monday Night Football to improve to 2-0.
We’re not quite ready to give up on the Eagles yet. Chip Kelly didn’t suddenly turn into an idiot, and Philly has plenty of motivation this week in practice to get better. The same isn’t quite true for the Jets, who have a short week to prepare and could be overconfident for this one.
Lean: Philadelphia +2.5 -101 at Pinnacle Sports
Saints at Panthers (Carolina -3.5, O/U 45)
New Orleans continues to look like a team that is past its prime, losing at home to Tampa Sunday as 10-point favourites. Drew Brees was held to 255 passing yards and the Saints turned the ball over three times. Offensively, New Orleans is not good enough to compensate for its poor defence anymore.
The Panthers won again Sunday with strong defence (61 rushing yards allowed) and a good ground attack (172 rushing yards for). Carolina doesn’t blow teams out, but it consistently wins the low-scoring battles.
We want no part of the Saints here, but we’re not interested in laying more than a field goal with Carolina either. Lean to the Panthers, but we’re buying half a point so we don’t lose on a 3-point game.
Lean: Carolina -3 -125
Jaguars at Patriots (New England -13.5, O/U 47.5)
The Patriots were small underdogs Week 2 in Buffalo, but rode 466 passing yards by Tom Brady and three forced turnovers by its defence to a 40-32 win over the Bills.
Jacksonville was full marks for a 23-20 home win over the Dolphins, jumping out to a 17-6 lead and then winning the game on a last-minute field goal. The Jags held Miami to just 42 yards on the ground.
Jacksonville is not as bad as people think. Two-touchdown spreads are a lot in the NFL, and coming off a big win over Buffalo, we’re not sure the Pats will have the motivation to cover one here. We’ll lean Jacksonville and hope that the line goes over 14 at some point.
Lean: Jacksonville +14 -120 at 5Dimes
Bengals at Ravens (Baltimore -3, O/U 44)
The proud Baltimore defence was humiliated Sunday in Oakland, allowing 37 points to the Raiders. The Ravens were gashed for 351 passing yards by Derek Carr, of all people. Baltimore might be missing Terrell Suggs, but the purple and black should be motivated to bounce back from that awful performance.
Cincy comes into this one ‘fat and happy’, off to a 2-0 start. Andy Dalton threw for three TDs in Sunday’s 24-19 home win over the Chargers.
There’s no question who the more motivated team is in this one. We still believe the Ravens are a playoff-quality team, and we’ll back them in what is a must-win spot to avoid going 3 games behind Cincinnati in the AFC North.
Lean: Baltimore -2.5 -120 at BetOnline
Raiders at Browns (Cleveland -4.5, O/U 42)
What are the odds that both teams in this matchup are coming off a win? Oakland somehow put up 37 points last week on a good Ravens defence, and the Browns comfortably doubled up the Titans at home.
We don’t trust Oakland to be motivated after a victory (Raiders are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a win) but asking Cleveland to win by more than a field goal seems a bit dicey too. A smarter bet here might be the under, since both QBs are mediocre and we don’t see them lighting up the scoreboards for two straight weeks.
Lean: Under 42.5 at Sports Interaction
Falcons at Cowboys (Atlanta -1, O/U 44.5)
Remember when Tony Romo was one of the laughingstocks of the NFL? Not anymore. Oddsmakers are valuing Romo at approximately a touchdown, since Dallas would likely have been a 6-point favourite in this one but is now a 1-point underdog without its injured QB.
Teams often elevate their play when playing without one of their stars. However, Dallas is now without two, since Dez Bryant is still on the shelf as well.
We don’t think the Falcons are as good as 2-0 suggests, but we’re not interested in having our money on Brandon Weeden. Instead, let’s look for the Dallas defence to step up its game in a low-scoring contest.
Lean: Under 45 -107 at Pinnacle Sports
49ers at Cardinals (Arizona -6, O/U 44)
Arizona might be the best NFL team nobody ever talks about. The Cards put up 48 points last week in Chicago and are now 15-2 when Carson Palmer is their starting QB.
San Francisco came back down to earth in a big way after its opening-week win over the Vikings, getting gashed for 29 first-half points in a loss in Pittsburgh.
Oddsmakers might be catching up a bit with Arizona, since 6 points is one of the biggest spreads we’ve seen the Cardinals have to cover. But if we include them in a 6-point teaser, we can get them down to the pick ’em range.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Houston -1/Arizona pk ’em -110 at Pinnacle Sports
Bills at Dolphins (Miami -3, O/U 44)
Big early-season matchup here as both the Bills and Dolphins look to avoid falling even further behind the undefeated Patriots and Jets in the AFC East.
Buffalo couldn’t live up to its own hype last week against New England, going down 37-13 before rallying late to lose by eight. The Dolphins dug themselves out of a 17-6 hole and had nearly 350 yards through the air, but lost on a last-minute field goal to the Jaguars.
These are two good defensive squads looking to bounce back from poor performances, and the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams.
Lean: Under 44 -108 at Pinnacle Sports
Broncos at Lions (Denver -3, O/U n/a)
Few sportsbooks have offered a line on this one due to the uncertain status of Detroit QB Matt Stafford, but BetOnline listed the Lions as 3-point underdogs.
If Stafford plays, this line would be very tempting with Detroit desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and Denver not exactly firing on all cylinders offensively. But it’s wise to wait on Stafford’s status, since the Lions backup QB hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2012.
Lean: Detroit +3 -110 at BetOnline
Chiefs at Packers (Green Bay -7, O/U 48)
The mental state of both of these teams is the biggest question mark here. How will the Chiefs recover from that devastating loss last Thursday at home to Denver? And can the Packers get themselves excited to play a non-conference foe a week after avenging their loss to Seattle in the 2014 NFC Championship Game?
One thing is for certain: Green Bay is likely to win the game. Aaron Rodgers’ record at Lambeau Field is ridiculously good. So we’re inclined to tease the Packers down to -1 and combine it with the Over 42 for a fun night watching Monday Night Football.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Packers -1, O/U 42 -110 at Pinnacle Sports