We came painfully close to another 2-0 showing with our Week 3 CFL betting picks, settling for 1-1 to move to 3-1 for +1.9 units on the season.
The Roughriders easily covered as 10-point dogs in Edmonton, taking the Eskimos to overtime before falling by a field goal.
Our loss came on the First Half Under 26 in Winnipeg/Hamilton. The teams were tied 7-7 with 3 minutes to go in the first half before combining for 17 points in the final 3 minutes of the half, including an interception return for a TD.
Another of the first-half touchdowns was a 120-yard return of a missed FG, so there was only 17 offensive points scored in the first half. That loss is a classic example of why it’s impossible to win more than 60% of your point spread or Over/Under bets long-term; there are so many variables.
Alright, we’re over it. Time to move on to our Week 4 CFL betting picks.
One game is already in the books in Week 4, with the Redblacks staying undefeated with a 30-20 win in Toronto Wednesday night. The rest of the Week 4 schedule sees the Eskimos at the Blue Bombers, Tiger-Cats at Alouettes and Lions at Roughriders.
Week 4 CFL Betting Lines At William Hill
(Odds as of 8 a.m. eastern on Thursday, July 14; visit our Live CFL Odds page for the latest odds.)
Week 4 CFL Betting Picks
Eskimos at Blue Bombers
Winnipeg got a much-needed victory last week in Hamilton but we aren’t convinced the Blue Bombers’ offensive issues are behind them. They averaged just 6.1 yards per pass, were held to 62 rushing yards and gained just 341 total yards. The Bombers got to 28 points with a interception return TD and another TD set up by a recovery of a kickoff, then a pass interference penalty deep in Hamilton territory.
Edmonton rallied from an early 13-0 hole last week to defeat the Roughriders in overtime. The Eskimos have certainly started the season slowly under new coach Jason Maas, but there are signs that they may be putting things together. The defence stopped Saskatchewan QB Darian Durant twice last week on third and one and held the Roughriders to 388 net yards, showing a ton of improvement in the second half.
Ordinarily, we might worry a bit about a ‘hangover effect’ from the Eskimos’ win last week over former coach Chris Jones. However, this is last year’s Grey Cup champion and they’re by no means satisfied with how they’ve played so far this year. Getting Edmonton at just over a field goal might smell like a bit of a trap, but we think the oddsmakers have given Winnipeg too much credit for last week’s win. Edmonton has beaten the Bombers in 8 of their last 9 meetings, and we’ll look for them to do it again. Give us the Eskimos -3.5, which we got at -105 odds at Bodog.
Lions at Roughriders
What a difference a week can make. Last week, the Lions were the darlings of the CFL, owners of a 2-0 record and laying -6.5 points at home to the Argonauts. But after a 25-14 loss in which B.C. had just 6 points until late in the fourth quarter, the Leos are now 2-point underdogs to the winless Roughriders.
Saskatchewan was 19 seconds away from a big upset last week in Edmonton, allowing the Eskimos to tie the game at the gun with a long field goal and then win it in OT. The Roughies were good in their opening-week loss to the Argos, when they held Toronto to 11 first downs and 241 net yards. Saskatchewan is 0-2, but already looks like a much better team.
Both teams are in bounce-back spots here. However, we don’t think the Lions were as good at 2-0 as everyone gave them credit for, and we think the Roughriders are better at 0-2 than people think as well. Saskatchewan is facing a QB who is making just his ninth career CFL start (BC’s Jonathon Jennings) and needs to capitalize on playing in front of its supportive home crowd, and they need this game with a visit from the Ottawa Redblacks scheduled for next week and a strong possibility of an 0-4 start.
We like Saskatchewan -1.5, with -106 reduced juice at Pinnacle.com.