Week 4 NFL Betting Picks and Previews

Eli Manning and the Giants are coming for Buffalo in one of Week 4's best matchups. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)

If Week 2 of the NFL betting season was the week of the underdog, Week 3 was the week of the public.

Sportsbooks got absolutely crushed on NFL Sunday. The Falcons came back from 14 points down to defeat the Tony Romo-less Cowboys. The Steelers survived a Ben Roethlisberger injury to beat the Rams. The Patriots and Seahawks easily covered double-digit point spreads, and the Cardinals pounded the 49ers.

Then, to top things off, the Packers jumped out to a huge lead and held on for a cover over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

Unfortunately for us, we missed out on the fun.

Our Week 3 NFL betting picks had their first losing week of the season, going  6-7.

Still, our season record on leans is 25-19 (a very profitable 57%), and we’re 4-1 on our five official NFL betting picks this season.

Let’s try to get back on track in Week 4.

(Listed odds as of Tuesday, Sept. 29. For updated NFL betting lines, visit our Live Odds page. And for our weekly official NFL betting picks, be sure to subscribe to our free picks email list.)

Ravens at Steelers (Baltimore -2, O/U 44)

2-1 Pittsburgh is home to the winless Ravens, and yet Baltimore is the favourite. That’s obviously a reaction to the Ben Roethlisberger injury, which leaves Michael Vick at the helm of the Steelers for this clash of fierce AFC North rivals.

Vick did complete 5 of 6 passes in relief last week against the Rams, mostly on checkdowns and dump-offs. Pittsburgh played it safe, handing the ball off to Le’Veon Bell, but running the ball has always been difficult against the Ravens.

Baltimore is definitely down in the dumps after three crushing losses to start the season. Ordinarily, we’d wonder about their mental state in that situation, but the Ravens always get up for Pittsburgh.

Lean: Under 44 -110

Jets at Dolphins (New York -1.5, O/U 41)

First of all, this game is in London, so there’s no home field advantage to account for.

The Jets suffered their first loss last week against the Eagles, but they still looked like the better team. New York gained nearly 100 yards more than Philly, but was done in by a punt return TD and four turnovers.

Miami put forth an embarrassing effort in its home opener last week, humiliated 41-14 by the visiting Bills. Ryan Tannehill threw for almost 300 yards but was picked off three times.

With so much on the line for both teams here, we anticipate a close game. It’s an excellent chance to pad the point spread on the underdog with a 6-point teaser.

Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Dolphins +7.5, Atlanta pick ’em -110 at Pinnacle Sports

Raiders at Bears (Oakland -2.5, O/U 44)

How bad are things in Chicago? So bad that the Raiders — who snapped an 11-game road losing streak last week — are actually the favourites in Soldier Field.

The Bears had 10 possessions last week in Seattle, and they punted all 10 times. At least they didn’t turn it over, right?

Oakland might be believing a little bit under new coach Jack Del Rio, carrying a 2-1 record into this one. Still, they’re the Raiders. This is a rare feeling, but we can’t get behind either team in this one.

Lean: None

Eagles at Redskins (Philadelphia -3.5, O/U 47.5)

After a 24-17 win over the Jets, all’s well in Philadelphia, right? We’re not so sure. That ‘explosive’ Philly attack still managed just 108 passing yards, benefiting from four New York turnovers and a punt return TD.

Washington actually moved the ball pretty well last Thursday in their loss to the Giants, with Kirk Cousins passing for more than 300 yards. The Redskins turned the ball over three times, including once at the goal line. Washington has three extra days to prepare for this one.

Lean: Redskins +3.5 -120 at Pinnacle Sports

Panthers at Buccaneers (Carolina -3, O/U 40)

Carolina struggled last week in its first outing as a big favourite, rallying from a third-quarter deficit to down the Saints 27-22 as 10-point chalk. Cam Newton showed an ability to produce when the Panthers needed him to throw the ball, racking up 315 passing yards.

The Bucs were outclassed by Houston in Week 3, managing just 14 first downs while allowing 30. Tampa’s scores came on a 58-yard field goal and a 32-yard TD pass, and they were 1 of 4 on field goal attempts.

Carolina consistently wins the tight games, and we see no reason that trend doesn’t continue this week.

Lean: Panthers -3 -115 at Sports Interaction

Jaguars at Colts (Indianapolis -10, O/U 47)

So Indy, which had to scratch and claw its way to its first win of the season last week over Tennessee, is now good enough to lay 10 points? Or maybe the Jags are so bad, coming off a 51-17 loss in New England, that oddsmakers need to give them 10.

Either way, we don’t agree. Things still aren’t right in Indianapolis, and New England is so pissed off this season that the Pats will probably make a lot of teams look bad. Look for this AFC South clash to be closer than people expect.

Lean: Jacksonville +10 -130 at 5Dimes

Giants at Bills (Buffalo -6, O/U 47)

Buffalo’s looked great in two of three outings this year, sandwiching blowouts of the Colts and Dolphins around a tough home loss to the Patriots. The Giants could easily be 3-0, blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in their first two games before last week’s easy win over Washington.

New York has the advantage here of having not played since the Thursday nighter. The Giants also seem to have their passing attack together. And Tyrod Taylor isn’t a QB we’re interested in laying a touchdown with.

Lean: Giants +6 -110 at BetOnline

Texans at Falcons (Atlanta -6, O/U 46.5)

Not much seems to faze the Falcons. They survived Philly’s comeback attempt to win in Week 1, overcame a 10-point fourth quarter-deficit to beat the Giants in Week 2 and then scored 22 unanswered points to beat the Cowboys 39-28 Sunday.

Houston, meanwhile, can barely get out of its own way. The Texans benefited from three missed field goals to beat Tampa last week after dropping their first two games.

With Atlanta showing shades of its former dominant self and the Texans struggling for confidence, we don’t see Houston winning this game. To avoid losing our bet if Atlanta wins a close one, teasing the Falcons down to pick ’em seems the way to go.

Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Dolphins +7.5, Falcons pick ’em -110 at Pinnacle Sports

Vikings at Broncos (Denver -6.5, O/U 43)

The Broncos used to cover touchdown spreads at home in their sleep, but it’s a little harder now. Denver’s winning with defence, leading the league in fewest yards allowed and ranking third in points against. That’s helped them start 3-0 despite an offence that looks nothing like a couple of years ago.

Minnesota’s no defensive slouch either, sitting fifth in points against. The Vikings had a brutal start to the season in San Francisco on Monday Night Football, but have bounced back with two rock-solid wins and remain an underrated squad.

Lean: Vikings +7 -115 at Bodog

Packers at 49ers (no line)

Remember when America’s Game of the Week was actually something you were excited to watch? The NFC schedule isn’t exactly intriguing this week, but it’s hard to believe this is Fox’s showcase of the afternoon.

In any event, the Packers are the obvious play in this one. The only question is by how much. And the only reasons to take the 49ers is A) Green Bay is coming off a short week, and B) San Fran should be motivated to atone for last week’s humiliation in Arizona.

Lean: N/A

Browns at Chargers (San Diego -7.5, O/U 45)

The Browns’ game of musical quarterbacks continued last week as Josh McCown was under centre in a 27-20 loss to the Raiders. Apparently Johnny Manziel was too effective the previous week in a win over the Rams?

San Diego returns home after a tough road trip with losses at Cincinnati and Minnesota. The Chargers have moved the ball pretty well this year, they’re just not finishing drives and putting up points.

Browns are bad, but a touchdown seems generous here.

Lean: Cleveland +8 -110 at Pinnacle Sports

Rams at Cardinals (Arizona -7, O/U 42.5)

St. Louis’ defence held the explosive Steelers to just 12 points Sunday. Yeah, Big Ben was injured, but Pittsburgh only had nine points when he left the game midway through the third quarter.

If only the Rams could score. But, they can’t. And that won’t cut it against a Cardinals team that is both lighting up the scoreboard and keeping teams off it. Oddsmakers are slowly catching up with how good Arizona is, but they haven’t caught up yet.

Lean: Arizona -6 -110 at

Cowboys at Saints (no line)

A year ago, this would have been a phenomenal Sunday Night Football game. Not anymore. The Saints are picking up the pieces of an 0-3 start, and the Cowboys are just trying to tread water without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

Dallas predictably lost last week in its first game with Brandon Weeden at starting QB, but it was hardly Weeden’s fault (22 for 26, 232 yards and 1 interception). Instead, the Cowboys’ usually decent defence was shredded for 438 yards. They’ll look to bounce back here, and the Saints should play this one conservative as well, with or without Brees.

Lean: Under ??

Lions at Seahawks (Seattle -9.5, O/U 43)

You could argue this is a must-win for both teams. Detroit is 0-3 and, in a division with the Packers and Vikings, already has a wild card as a best-case scenario. Seattle got off the schneid last week to improve to 1-2 but could fall 3 games behind Arizona with a loss here.

Our instinct is to take the points with the Lions, but they shoot themselves in the foot so often, it’s a scary proposition against Seattle’s turnover-generating defence. With the Seahawks’ offence struggling to score these days, we don’t want to take Seattle on the point spread either. Teasing the Seahawks with the under is the best option in our mind, but we’re not in a hurry to bet this one at all.

Lean: 6.5-Point Teaser: Seattle -3, Under 49.5 -120 at Pinnacle Sports