We had our second straight 1-1 week in Week 4, and are now 4-2 on the CFL betting season for +1.8 units.
Our winner was on the Eskimos -3.5 in Winnipeg, as Edmonton came through for us with a 4-point victory. Winnipeg jumped out to an early lead (the Eskimos have been slow starters to games this year, which might make them a good team to bet against on the first half lines) but didn’t do much on offence in the second half.
Our loss came on Saskatchewan -1.5 at home to the B.C. Lions. That was a frustrating loss as the Roughies built a 23-10 lead by halftime but lost starting QB Darian Durant, and the Lions outscored Saskatchewan 30-4 in the second half. Unfortunately for the 0-3 Roughriders, they don’t get any breaks from the schedulemakers as they have to face the unbeaten Redblacks on Friday.
That’s one of four games to choose from for our Week 5 CFL betting picks, with the others being the Stampeders at Blue Bombers on Thursday night, Ti-Cats at Eskimos Saturday and Alouettes at Argonauts Monday. B.C. gets the week off.
Week 5 CFL Betting Picks
Stampeders at Blue Bombers
We get a low total to work with here because the Blue Bombers rank second-last in the CFL in points per game, averaging 20.
Winnipeg’s offence hasn’t been as bad as it seems, however. QB Drew Willy ranks second in the league in both passing yards and completion percentage, but the Bombers have shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and also haven’t run the ball very effectively.
They could enjoy more success this week against a Calgary defence that has been weakened by injuries and illnesses already this season. The Stamps will be playing backups at middle linebacker and defensive end, and could be vulnerable, especially on the ground.
Calgary is coming off a bye, and the Stampeders have a long history of excellence after a week off. They’ve won 12 straight games after a bye, and their offence has averaged nearly 40 points per game in that situation. Now they’re going up against a Winnipeg defence that allowed 465 passing yards to the Eskimos last week, even though it held Edmonton to 20 points.
The Stamps’ defensive issues and a desperate Winnipeg squad at home made us pass on Calgary -5, even after a week off. Instead, we see the potential for both teams to put up points this week, and we’ll go with the Over 50 at -106 odds at www.Pinnacle.com.
Tiger-Cats at Eskimos
Is there a more misleading record in the CFL than Hamilton’s 2-2 mark? The Tiger-Cats’ 31-7 win over Montreal last week may have seemed like a dominant effort, but it really wasn’t. They were outgained by 10 yards and had the same number of first downs as the Alouettes (17 apiece), but Montreal turned the ball over 5 times – three of those times on downs in the fourth quarter.
Hamilton pulled away because of an 86-yard punt return TD and five field goals, including a 56 yarder. The Ticats put up 31 points, but their offence still has some issues.
Edmonton looked pretty average last week in Winnipeg but again the boxscore tells a different story. Eskimos QB Mike Reilly threw for more than 450 yards and Edmonton racked up 26 first downs, they just struggled finishing off drives. We don’t think the Eskimos are far off from clicking offensively again.
One other note about this game is that the Ticats’ centre is making his first CFL start. The centre is probably the most underrated position in football, because he has a ton of responsibilities that can make or break the offence. Factor in this short point spread and we’re grabbing the Eskimos -4 at -110 odds at www.SportsInteraction.com.