Can Andy Dalton finally step up and deliver in a big game? (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
We enjoyed a stellar week with our Week 4 NFL betting picks, going 9-2.
That improves our season record on leans is 34-21 and we’re 6-1 on our seven official NFL betting picks this season.
Hopefully we can keep it rolling in Week 5.
(Listed odds as of Thursday, Oct. 9. For updated NFL betting lines, visit our Live Odds page. And for our weekly official NFL betting picks, be sure to subscribe to our free picks email list.)
Colts at Texans
The line on this game remains in limbo because of the uncertain status of Colts QB Andrew Luck, who sat out Indy’s victory over Jacksonville Thursday.
Even if Luck plays, he’ll likely struggle to find time to make plays behind a porous Colts offensive line and against a ferocious Texans pass rush. A key here will be whether Houston rebounds from last week’s whipping at Atlanta to play with pride, or throws in the towel.
Lean: Texans
Jaguars at Buccaneers (Tampa Bay -3, O/U 42.5)
Jacksonville came up just short in an upset attempt at Indy, losing in OT. The Jags generated more than 400 yards of offence and didn’t turn the ball over, but could manage just one TD.
Tampa also moved the ball well against Carolina (411 total yards) but couldn’t overcome five turnovers, including two defensive TDs by the Panthers.
This one could be decided by turnovers as well, and we’ll lean to the QB who isn’t as prone to make them.
Lean: Jaguars +3
Bills at Titans (Buffalo -2.5, O/U 42.5)
Buffalo’s up and down season continued last week with a disappointing home loss to the Giants. Tennessee enjoyed a bye.
We could see either team winning this one, but the low total has caught our attention. The Titans have gone over the total in all three of their games this season, and with both teams likely contributing to the scoreboard Sunday, we think it will happen again.
Lean: Over 42.5
Browns at Ravens (Baltimore -6.5, O/U 43)
Baltimore needed the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers to soil their pants repeatedly last Thursday in order to pull out a season-saving win in OT. The Browns shot themselves in the foot last week as well, rallying late to tie the game before an offsides penalty gave the Chargers a second chance at a game-winning field goal.
The Ravens own this rivalry, and they have the advantage of 10 days to prepare. Still, we’re not ready to ask them to cover a touchdown. This looks like an ideal teaser candidate.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Ravens -0.5, Chiefs -2.5 -110
Redskins at Falcons (Atlanta -7.5, O/U 47.5)
Atlanta was very impressive Sunday, dominating the Texans 48-21 to improve to 4-0 on the year. Yet, the Falcons were outgained in total yards, benefitting from two defensive TDs.
Dysfunctional Washington is 2-2 and might be flying under the radar a bit. The defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards allowed.
Lean: Redskins +7.5
Bears at Chiefs (Kansas City -9, O/U 46)
The injury-depleted Chiefs defence has allowed 30-plus points in three straight games. The fact that KC is laying 9 points in this spot is more an indictment of the Bears than confidence in Andy Reid’s squad.
Chicago got off the schneid last week with a come-from-behind win over the Raiders at home. Considering how bad the Bears are, that’s a big win for this team and could lead to a letdown in an non-conference road game. Still, we’ll play it safe and tease the Chiefs down under a field goal.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Ravens -0.5, Chiefs -2.5 -110
Saints at Eagles (Philadelphia -5.5, O/U 49)
The Chip Kelly experiment in Philly took another bad turn last week as the Eagles were held to just 14 first downs in a 23-20 loss at Washington. So much for that explosive Philadelphia offence.
New Orleans used 359 passing yards from Drew Brees and a strong defensive effort to defeat the Cowboys in OT last week for their first win of the year. This year’s Saints squad is not as flashy as it has been in the past, relying more on a solid ground game and an improved defence.
This total looks awfully high to us.
Lean: Under 49
Rams at Packers (Green Bay -9, O/U 45.5)
Is there a spread the Packers can’t cover? Despite laying over a TD on the road, Green Bay easily covered last week in San Francisco and is now 4-0 against the spread.
The Rams are coming off an upset win in Arizona and also beat the Seahawks this year. This is the same team that lost Week 2 in Washington. So St. Louis is obviously capable of hanging tough, but the Rams could also lay an egg. That makes it tough to make a point spread pick here.
Lean: 6-Point Teaser: Packers -3, Over 39.5 -110
Seahawks at Bengals (Cincinnati -2.5, O/U 43)
Cincinnati once again appears to be one of the best teams in the NFL, winning their first four games by an average of more than 10 points a game. Seattle just got back to .500 last week with a tougher-than-expected win over the Lions, preserved by Kam Chancellor’s strip of Calvin Johnson at the goal line.
The Bengals are good, but their track record in big games like this is not. They haven’t won a playoff game in the Andy Dalton era, and we remember the ass kicking the Patriots put on them last year in a similar spot. Until Cincy proves it can step up at pressure time, we’ll go against them.
Lean: Seahawks +3
Patriots at Cowboys (New England -8.5, O/U 49)
Things are falling apart fast in Big D. The Cowboys are 0-2 since the Tony Romo injury, even though Brandon Weeden has shown flashes of competency. It’s more the Dallas defence that has regressed, and they’re feeling the loss of DeMarco Murray more than they anticipated as well.
New England enters this game 3-0 and coming off a bye. Bill Belichick’s record with time to prepare is very good. We expect a focused effort from the Pats here, and that means more woes for the Cowboys.
Lean: Patriots -8.5
Broncos at Raiders (Denver -5, O/U 43)
Denver continues to win with defence, clinching a 3-point win last week on Von Miller’s forced fumble and recovery against the Vikings. Oakland has shown improvement under new coach Jack Del Rio, but the Raiders struggled last week in a rare favourite role against the Bears, managing just 16 first downs.
The Broncos have dominated this rivalry for a long time, particularly in Oakland, where they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 visits. With a small number here and the Denver defence poised to smother the Raiders’ attack, we’ll look for that to continue.
Lean: Broncos -5
Cardinals at Lions (Arizona -2.5, O/U 44)
Arizona suffered its first loss of the season last week, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns in a home defeat against the Rams. Detroit nearly rallied in the fourth quarter for an upset win in Seattle, but Calvin Johnson fumbled at the goal line in the final minute and the Lions remained winless.
This is a bounceback spot for the Cardinals, and a tough one for the Lions coming off a Monday Night Football game and a difficult loss. If this one’s tight late, we know which team will be playing with confidence and more likely to pull it out.
Lean: Cardinals -2.5
49ers at Giants (New York -7, O/U 43)
The 49ers’ Week 1 win over Minnesota briefly tricked us into thinking they might not be too bad after all. Turns out they are as awful as we thought they were. San Fran could muster just 8 first downs and 3 points last week at home against Green Bay, even though the Niner defence kept them in the game.
New York has been better than many expected. The Giants could be 4-0 if it weren’t for the blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys and Falcons in the first two weeks of the season. New York should cruise in this one, but we wouldn’t want to lay more than a TD. And fortunately, this dog of a matchup will let us focus on the Jays’ playoff game Sunday night instead.
Lean: Giants -7
Steelers at Chargers (San Diego -3, O/U 45)
Pittsburgh will have had 10 days to disect a disappointing Thursday Night Football loss to the hated Ravens, in which the Steelers missed two field goals that would have put the game away before losing in OT. Chargers are coming off a last-minute win over the Browns, kicking a field goal as time expired.
Steelers remain without Roethlisberger, but at least Michael Vick has had a couple of weeks’ preparation under his belt for this one instead of just three days for the Baltimore game. Pittsburgh has long been a prime team on Prime Time, and we trust them more in this spot than the up and down Chargers.
Lean: Steelers +3.5