Week 5 was the second perfect showing in as many weeks for our 2018 CFL betting picks. Yeah, it was only 1-0 with a push (improving our season record to 2-0 for +2 units), but saying “perfect” still feels good so we’ll go with it.
The win came on the RedBlacks Team Total Under , a win that couldn’t have come in any easier fashion as Calgary’s defense dominated from the opening gun. We’d also hoped to open a teaser leg with the Eskimos -1 over the Argos, but Edmonton ended up winning that game by exactly 1 point, resulting in a refund on our teaser and a push.
After staying fairly conservative so far this year, we’re ready to push things a little bit with wagers on three of the four games in Week 6 CFL betting picks action. When we wrote this article on Wednesday, there was no line yet available for the Alouettes/Stampeders clash, so we may end up adding a fourth play this week as well – stay tuned.
Here’s our CFL betting picks for Week 6, along with writeups for all three of them.
Roughriders at Tiger-Cats
Both of these teams didn’t play last week in what was a weird three-game Week 5 slate. That means that Saskatchewan’s 18-13 victory over the Tabbies July 5 in Regina will be the freshest thing in both squads’ minds as they gather in Hamilton for a rematch.
So why are the Cats favoured by more than 10 points here, considering that the Roughriders beat them just two weeks ago? Because Saskatchewan was incredibly fortunate to pull that one out. Hamilton dominated the Green Riders in first downs (25-12), but Saskatchewan scored its first touchdown on a long fumble recovery, then added the game winner in the final two minutes.
Hamilton’s easily the better of these two teams here, and they’re motivated to boot. But as tempting as it is to lay the points with the Ticats here (even at that big number), an angle we like more is the Hamilton defense’s potential to shut down the Roughriders attack. They already did it a couple of weeks ago, the third time in four outings that the Ticats have held the opposition to 21 points or less. Meanwhile, the Roughriders have scored more than 18 in a game just once in four outings, needing an interception return for a TD to score 27 versus the Argos in the season opener.
We recommend betting the Roughriders Team Total Under here. (We personally got Under 20 -110 at 5Dimes on Wednesday, but most sportsbooks won’t have this line available until Thursday.)
Lions at RedBlacks
If you read our picks last week, you might recall us saying that two of our favourite CFL betting spots are betting on the Stampeders when they’re coming off a bye week and betting on Calgary when it’s a short road favourite. And sure enough, Calgary delivered on both counts, whipping Ottawa 27-3 and easily cashing our RedBlacks Team Total Under wager.
That game has created to another situation that we absolutely love: betting on the RedBlacks when they’re coming off a loss. Ottawa has long been stellar in this role, covering the spread in its last 5 games following a defeat and going 8-2 against the number in its last 10 games after failing to cover. The best focus spots are usually when a team gets embarrassed (especially at home), and Rick Campbell’s crew might be the most consistent in the CFL in this department.
But can we trust Ottawa enough to cover a full touchdown in this one? And just as importantly, how likely are the Lions to keep things close? We’re not sure B.C. is in a great spot here, coming off an emotional last-minute victory at home last week over the Blue Bombers in a game that was about as “must win” as they get early in the season.
Now the Lions have to travel across the country, also knowing that they’ve lost their last two road contests by a combined total of 41 points. Those road struggles date back a bit as B.C. has covered just one of its last eight games away from home. And while Travis Lulay may have sparked the Lions’ offence last week, the biggest reason the Leos pulled out the win was their three interceptions of Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols.
Coming off a humiliating loss last week on their home turf, we don’t expect the RedBlacks to be nearly as reckless with the football. We’ll lay the touchdown with Ottawa here, taking advantage of the -103 reduced juice at Pinnacle.
Blue Bombers at Argonauts
Winnipeg goes on the road for a second straight week, looking to bounce back from Saturday’s deflating 20-17 loss in B.C. The Bombers looked to have that game in hand when they led 17-0 at half, but Winnipeg then failed to score in the entire second half as the Lions roared back to tie the game in the fourth quarter, then win it with a field goal in the dying seconds.
There’s two ways teams tend to react in this situation: either suffering an emotional letdown the next game as they fail to get over the tough loss, or bringing extra intensity and desire to the field. But with the way Winnipeg has played this season, we’re not convinced that even a fired up Bombers team gets the job done with ease in this game.
That’s because Toronto is proving to be a very tough out these days, now that everyone gave up the Argos for dead following the season-ending injury to Ricky Ray. The Boatmen nearly swept a home-and-home with the Eskimos, winning the first leg in Toronto before succumbing by just 1 point last week in Edmonton (when we pushed our Eskimos -1 teaser play.) Although Toronto isn’t doing much offensively, the Argos are able to stay in the game by keeping things low-scoring, hoping to steal a victory in the final minutes.
Winnipeg will be hard-pressed to blow out Toronto here as well, considering that the only game in which the Bombers dominated yardage was against the hapless Alouettes. We actually expected a lower total for this game, so maybe we’re walking into a bit of a trap, but we’ll take the Under 53 at -110 odds offered by Pinnacle as of Wednesday afternoon.