We’ve been treading water a bit lately, going 1-1 in each of the last 3 weeks but still maintaining a season record of 5-3 (62.5%) against the spread for +1.7 units.
It looked like we were on our way to a 2-0 sweep in Week 5 after we won our first bet (Blue Bombers Over 50.5) and the Eskimos (who we had at -4) jumped out to a huge lead over Hamilton. But the Tiger-Cats staged a very impressive second-half rally to defeat Edmonton, and we had to settle for a 1-1 week.
Making our Week 6 CFL betting picks was pretty tricky. There’s a QB change in Winnipeg, QB uncertainty in Saskatchewan and a backup QB starting for Toronto. The Alouettes are also in action 4 days after losing Monday in Toronto, which is an incredibly quick turnaround in football.
Just a heads up before we get into our CFL betting picks for Week 6: We published an article this week about the key numbers in CFL betting, and how they differ from the NFL.
If you bet on football regularly, you’ll find it interesting. It may actually make you think twice about taking an underdog +4.5 instead of +5.
Alright, on to the Week 6 CFL betting lines and picks.
Week 6 CFL Betting Picks
Blue Bombers at Eskimos (Thursday, 9 p.m. eastern)
Biggest news in this matchup is that Winnipeg has benched QB Drew Willy in favour of former Eskimos pivot Matt Nichols. Nichols threw a TD last week in relief duty and has already talked some trash this week, saying he’ll “light up” the Eskimos defence as long as the Bombers O-Line can keep him upright.
The Edmonton D has been lit up a lot this year, especially last week when they allowed Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli to complete a CFL record 23 straight passes. There’s been a lot written this week about how Edmonton’s no-huddle offence has hurt their defence because it doesn’t allow the defence much time to catch its breath.
The Over in this game opened at 53.5 and has been bet up to as high as 56. However, we see the potential for a lower-scoring game here. If Nichols is the saviour, why wasn’t he the starter all along? His comments should fire up an Edmonton defensive unit that is already motivated to be better this week, and we think the Eskimos offence will slow things down a bit as well to give their D a breather.
Winnipeg is 1-3-1 Over/Under this year, with the Over coming last week by half a point. 56 is a high total when the Blue Bombers are involved, so we’ll grab the Under 56 at -110 (we got this line at 5Dimes).
Roughriders at Alouettes (Friday, 7 p.m. eastern)
Not a game we’re eager to watch, but that won’t stop us from betting on it.
This is a classic letdown spot for Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are coming off their first victory of the season, a 1-point win over previously undefeated Ottawa, and now face a woeful Montreal team. Star QB Darian Durant could also be back from injury, making the Roughies even more over-confident.
The Als, however, are in a tough spot of their own. They played just 4 days ago in Toronto, so there hasn’t been a lot of time to lick wounds or even do much game planning. Morale is down in Montreal with the team struggling badly. Ben Cahoon is getting his number retired Friday evening, but we’re not sure that will do much to fire up the Als either.
With both teams poised to go through the motions and Montreal likely forced to go with a pretty vanilla game plan, we can’t imagine a lot of offensive fireworks in this game either.
It’s not exciting playing our second straight Under in Week 6, but it’s the only way we can go in this matchup. Montreal has gone under in 32 of its last 46 games, and we’ll look for it to happen again. Under 49.5 (-110 odds) is our bet in this game.