Wimbledon's Fast Grass Surface Favours Underdogs

Novak Djokovic is a solid favourite to win this year's Wimbledon tennis men's title. (Photo credit: Marianne Bevis / Foter / CC BY-ND)

If you’re doing Wimbledon betting this year, it might be wise to take a lot of underdogs.

Grass is the fastest surface on Tour, which increases the amount of serving aces and makes it harder for player to break their opponent’s serve.

In theory, this would lead to longer games and less separation between players. This gives a lot of values to underdogs on set betting, since they’ll start each game with a big head start on the game handicap.

Here are three things to keep in mind for both the men and the women if you are doing Wimbledon betting this year:

MEN’S WIMBLEDON BETTING TIPS

Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are the ATP’s top players on grass, though Djokovic isn’t as dominant on grass as he is on other surfaces. Still, he is the Wimbledon betting favourite at Pinnacle Sports, paying +146.
It’s a good idea to avoid betting on Rafael Nadal, who has a mediocre record in his limited action on grass over the past few years.
Only six of the ATP’s top ten players break serve more than 20% of the time, including Canada’s Milos Raonic at a lowly 12.7%, and it will be even harder to do so at Wimbledon.

WOMEN’S WIMBLEDON BETTING TIPS

Serena Williams, despite only playing seven matches on grass over the past two seasons, is still the world’s best player in grass, due to her solid combined hold/break percentages (87.1% hold, 47.7% break). She is the women’s Wimbledon betting favourite at Pinnacle Sports, at +175.
Simona Halep, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Ana Ivanovic round out the top five in hold/break percentage on grass surfaces over the past two years, which bodes well for them as potential darkhorses in this year’s tournament.
Players to avoid include Ekaterina Makarova and, we hate to say, Canada’s Eugenie Bouchard, whose recent struggles might be even more pronounced by the speedy Wimbledon grass courts.