The Jays' trade for David Price nearly doubled their chances of winning the World Series this year, according to oddsmakers. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
The Blue Jays have done some serious shopping, and the oddsmakers have noticed.
Toronto was considered a longshot to win the World Series earlier this week, stumbling and bumbling around .500 as they reached the 100-game mark.
Then the Jays stunned everyone by acquiring slugging SS Troy Tulowitzki and reliever LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies Tuesday, with Jose Reyes being the only everday player going back to Colorado. All of a sudden, despite being 7 games back of the Yankees in the AL East and still having serious pitching issues, Toronto was seen as a contender again.
Bodog AL Pennant Betting Odds After Tulowitzki Trade
Bodog World Series Betting Odds After Tulowitzki Trade
But Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos wasn’t done. He mortgaged a bit more of Toronto’s future to pick up stud lefty David Price from the Tigers, again managing not to detract much from the everyday roster.
Toronto now not only boasts the most dangerous lineup in baseball — by a long shot — it also finally has the ace every championship team needs. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are serviceable No.2 and No.3 guys in a good team’s rotation, but they don’t exactly instill fear in opposing hitters.
With all the uncertainty surrounding the MLB trade deadline, we haven’t seen very many online sportsbooks post updated World Series betting odds after the Jays’ acquisition of Price. But various reports say Toronto’s World Series betting odds at Las Vegas sportsbooks were as low as 15:1 — nearly half of what they were before the Price trade.
William Hill World Series Betting Odds After Price Trade
According to FanGraphs, the Jays now have a 43.9% chance of making the playoffs.
FanGraphs Playoff Probabilities After Price Trade
But are the Jays a good pick at 15:1 on the World Series betting odds?
Since they’re currently 7 games out of the division lead, let’s assume the Jays are one of the two AL wild cards. That would mean they’d have to win a wild card game, then an division series, then the American League Championship Series, and then the World Series.
If the Jays are 50/50 to advance in each of those rounds, their odds should be 2x2x2x2 = 16:1.
And Toronto still needs to earn a wild card first.
It’s also a bit of a stretch to think a 51-51 baseball team, even with the upgrades at SS and starting pitcher, would have a 50/50 chance to beat teams like the Royals, Cardinals, Nationals, Dodgers or Giants in a long series. If Price doesn’t win his starts — and he’ll be matched up against opposing aces — the Jays would be in trouble. Playoff games also often come down to the late innings, and Toronto’s bullpen isn’t exactly lights out.
As Jays fans, we absolutely love the moves this week. It’s exciting to even think about Toronto being in the playoffs, even if it could just be a one-game wild card contest. And Anthopoulos might not even be done. We hope he’ll add even more pitching.
But for now, we can’t put our money where our mouth is on Toronto. 15:1 is a lot better than the Jays’ chances have been recently at this point in any season, but it’s not enough of a payout for us.
Wish we had grabbed the 25:1 a few days ago, though…