Can Auston Matthews Win The Hart Trophy This Year?

This past summer, Auston Matthews became the first Toronto Maple Leafs player in more than half a century to receive the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year.

Now, it’s time to wonder if Matthews can break an even lengthier drought for the Toronto franchise.

No, we’re not talking about the Stanley Cup. Though the young Leafs are clearly on the right path in their rebuild, gave the top-seeded Washington Capitals fits in the first round of the playoffs last year and have added a few veteran pieces during the off-season, not even the most optimistic of Toronto fans is clearing his calendar for a parade next June. It’s at least another year (or two) away before the Leafs can seriously expect to contend for their first Cup since 1967.

However, Matthews may have a good chance at nabbing the most coveted piece of player hardware out there – the Hart Trophy. No Leaf has received the NHL’s MVP award since Ted Kennedy claimed the honour in 1954-55, a streak Matthews hopes to snap this season at the tender age of 20.

Is that too much, too soon? Don’t snicker too loudly. Matthews is hardly a longshot to win the Hart in 2017-18. In fact, according to popular online betting site Bodog, he’s one of this year’s favourites.

2018 Hart Trophy odds

Bodog ranks Matthews’ chances at 17/2, which represents a probability of approximately 10.5%. That may not sound that high, but only two other players in the NHL – defending MVP Connor McDavid and four-time Stanley Cup champion Sidney Crosby – have shorter odds at claiming the Hart. The Oilers’ McDavid is the favourite at 3/2 odds (40% probability), followed by Crosby at 5/2 (28.5%).

Can Matthews Beat Out McDavid?


Obviously, the biggest hurdle in Matthews’ quest for the Hart is McDavid, the Oilers captain who was the only player in the NHL last season to crack the 100-point plateau and also took home the Ted Lindsay Award as the most outstanding player in the eyes of his peers.

But McDavid accomplished that Hart Trophy win in his sophomore season, which Matthews is just heading into now. And though McDavid was the more celebrated prospect before arriving to the NHL, Matthews’ rookie numbers actually compare pretty well to the Edmonton phenom’s half-season as a freshman.

In the 45 games McDavid suited up in as a rookie in 2015-16, he averaged better than a point per game (1.07) and scored at the pace of a 29-goal campaign. Matthews averaged less points per game in his rookie year (0.84) but he did score 40 goals, making him just the 19th player to score 40+ as a rookie – and just the sixth teenager to do it.

Both players are heavily leaned on by their teams, making them clear MVP contenders if they stay healthy and their teams do well. McDavid either scored or assisted on 100 of Edmonton’s 243 goals last season (41.1%). Matthews wasn’t nearly as vital to the Leafs attack, drawing points on 69 of 250 (27.6%), but he did that as a rookie. It’s reasonable to expect an improvement by Matthews in that department now that he’s got a season under his belt.

Crosby is obviously another threat to win the Hart, but for all of the success Sid has enjoyed in his career, he’s claimed the Hart Trophy just twice. That may have to do more with his inability to stay healthy (he’s played 80 or more games just three times since his rookie year in 2005-06), but it’s still relevant when trying to project the Hart Trophy race. Crosby is also hurt a bit by the fact that another Hart candidate, Evgeni Malkin (18/1), plays on his team.

 

Hart Trophy Is For Most Valuable Player, Not Best Player


When comparing players in an effort to break down the Hart Trophy race, it’s easy to turn things into a debate about which player is better.

Of course, that’s not what the Hart Trophy is for. It’s not for who is the best player in the league, it’s which player is the most valuable to his particular team. And that’s where Matthews may have a slight edge on McDavid.

Though McDavid is obviously indispensable to the Oilers and the big reason that they nearly won the Pacific last season, he also plays on an Edmonton team that, well, nearly won the Pacific last season. Contrast that to Matthews and the Leafs, who squeaked into the playoffs in the last weekend of the season. If Toronto takes a giant leap up the standings and Matthews has a huge year offensively, he’ll be given a lot of the credit by voters, especially in the mecca hockey media market of Toronto.

McDavid could also be hurt by the fact that he’s the defending MVP, subconsciously swaying voters to look in a different direction this season. The Hart Trophy has had just one repeat winner (Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08 and 08-09) since Dominik Hasek in the mid-90s. Before that, Wayne Gretzky was the last player to win two straight Hart Trophies, finishing off an eight-year run as the undisputed NHL MVP in 1986-87.

Will Matthews Win The Hart Trophy?

There’s potential for Matthews to claim the Hart this season. But a lot will need to go right in order for that to happen.

He’ll have to stay healthy. He’ll have to put up better numbers. His Leafs will have to be much better. And McDavid will probably need to get hurt, at least for part of the season, or the Oilers need to regress a bit.

All of these are possibilities, of course. Whether they can all happen this year requires a bit of a perfect storm.

It wouldn’t be fair to expect Matthews to win the Hart Trophy this season, or to consider his year a failure if he didn’t. But don’t be surprised to see him as a finalist for the award in 2017-18. And if a few things can break his and the Leafs’ way, we may just see another lengthy Toronto drought die in the process.