If it looks too easy, it probably is.

So often in sports, it appears almost certain that one team will beat the other. Whether the one team needs a win to keep its season alive, has dominated recent meetings between the teams or is just way better than its opponent, it’s easy to throw your money on the favourite — no matter what the odds are.

Oddsmakers aren’t fools. They know what the general public is thinking and they make their lines accordingly.
That means that the team everyone expects to win is often overpriced (favoured by too much), sucking all the value out of backing it.

We see this a lot involving teams in playoff races, no matter what the sport:

Team A desperately needs a win to keep its postseason hopes alive, while Team B is out of the playoff race or has clinched its spot. The natural thinking is to take Team A because it “has to win”, and it’ll be a heavy favourite because of that concept.

But think about it. If Team A could just win whenever it had to, it wouldn’t be in the position where it needed a win so badly, would it?

And in this scenario, Team B will often play to its potential or above it because it is facing no pressure, or perhaps is motivated to spoil the chances of Team A.

We’re not saying that Team A won’t win the game. We’re just saying it’s not going to be as easy as it looks and it won’t win as often as the odds might suggest it should.

The better long-term strategy in these situations is to either take the underdog at the inflated price or just lay off the game.