With another interesting week of NFL action ahead of us, here’s a closer look at eight betting lines this week and why the point spreads are what they are.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia (+3)
So you have a team in a must-win situation (Cincy) as only a three-point favourite at a 4-9 squad (Philadelphia). What gives? Couple things to keep in mind here. Yes, the 7-6 Bengals can’t really afford another loss if they are going to make the playoffs, but they are coming off a last-second loss at home to Dallas on Sunday. Those can be pretty hard to bounce back from, particularly five days later on the road. Philly, meanwhile, got a huge emotional lift with its comeback Sunday in Tampa Bay, scoring on the final play of the game to edge the Bucs 23-21 and snap an eight-game losing streak. Philly’s offence has also looked pretty good lately under the direction of Nick Foles, putting 22, 33 and 23 points in its last three outings. Andy Reid is as good as done in Philly, but his team continues to play hard for him.
Green Bay at Chicago (+3)
A few weeks ago, it would have been hard to imagine the Bears catching points at home to the Pack. But Chicago is in free fall, having lost four of its last five, and star linebacker Brian Urlacher remains out indefinitely (hamstring). On the other hand, Green Bay is on fire, winning seven of its last eight. And defensive mainstays Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews, who have been out for more than a month each, are expected back for this one.
NY Giants at Atlanta (-1)
New York looked great in routing the Saints last week, while the Falcons were embarrassed in Carolina. That only sets up well for Atlanta in a big bounceback setting, with the Giants in a possible letdown situation. The Falcons are probably the most disrespected 11-2 team you’ll ever see, and Matt Ryan’s career record at the Georgia Dome is well documented. Before you submit your Falcons ticket for this week, though, don’t forget the Giants always seem to come up big in big games. They’ve smoked the 49ers, Packers and Saints this season, and they won’t be intimidated by the Dirty Birds.
Denver at Baltimore (+2.5)
From a situational perspective, you have to like the Ravens in this one. They’ve been an excellent home team for several seasons, are coming off back-to-back losses, and just fired their offensive co-ordinator. This is the most desperate the Ravens should be in a long time, particularly since their hold on the AFC North has also slipped with their recent funk. Sure, Denver’s rolling with eight straight victories, but they’ve already locked up the AFC West and could be ripe for a letdown this weekend. It’s hard to imagine Peyton Manning letting down against anybody, but he only plays one position on the field. The public’s infatuation with Denver has driven the Broncos up into a favourite role against one of the best home teams in football, a role we don’t think they quite deserve yet.
Indianapolis at Houston (-8)
The reason this line is so high is that this should be an ideal spot to back the home team, with the Texans coming off an embarrassing blowout loss at New England on Monday night. But at 11-2 and with the AFC South locked up, there’s no guarantee Houston will be as fired up to play this one. Home field advantage throughout the AFC is still at stake for the Texans, but there’s a big difference between facing New England in prime time and hosting Indy on Sunday afternoon. The Colts appear to be this year’s team of destiny, rallying around coach Chuck Pagano and playing themselves into playoff contention. It’s pretty hard to bet against this team these days.
Seattle at Buffalo (+5.5)
This spread is no doubt inflated by the Seahawks’ destruction of Arizona last weekend. Seattle is a hell of a home team, but the Seahawks are just 2-4 on the road this season, including losses at Miami, at Arizona and at St. Louis. The Bills are pretty comparable to those three teams, though they’re coming off a crushing last-minute loss to the Rams that extinguished any faint playoff hopes they may have had. Don’t expect much of a home-field advantage here for the Bills, since the game will be played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Seahawks are aided by the fact this game is slated for a 4 p.m. eastern kickoff, meaning it will only feel like 1 p.m. on their West Coast body clocks
Pittsburgh at Dallas (pk)
Two 7-6 teams both desperate for a victory in this one, but the home team is listed as a pick. Since home field advantage is typically worth approximately a field goal on the betting line, the oddsmakers are tipping their hand a bit here and telling us the Steelers are the better team. Pittsburgh’s defence has allowed the least yards in the league and should be a big test for turnover-prone Tony Romo. The Steelers’ record is also a bit deceiving since they had to go a few games without Ben Roethlisberger. Dallas is coming off a very emotional win over the Bengals Sunday (a win they dedicated to the practice roster player who was killed last weekend in a car accident) and might not be completely focused on this one. The ‘Boys will also likely be without WR Dez Bryant, who fractured his finger against Cincy.
San Francisco at New England (-6)
On Sunday night, the Patriots were first listed as -3 or -3.5 favourites against the 49ers this weekend. Tuesday morning, after that dominating showing against the Texans, New England is laying 6 points (7 in some places). That sounds like a lot of extra value to us. Brady and the Pats sure looked unstoppable Monday, but let’s see them roll up 42 points against a 49ers defence that has allowed a league-low 14.2 points per game. The San Fran offence isn’t exactly flashy but it should be enough to keep the Niners in it against a softer-than-usual New England defensive unit. Remember, too, that the 8-5-1 49ers have the Seahawks in their rear-view mirror in the NFC West while the Pats have sewn up top spot in the AFC East. If this line gets up to a full touchdown, it’s either San Francisco or nothing for us.
Other games:
Jacksonville at Miami (-7)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5)
Minnesota at St. Louis (-3)
Washington at Cleveland (OTB)
Detroit at Arizona (+5.5)
Carolina at San Diego (-3)
Kansas City at Oakland (-2.5)
NY Jets at Tennessee (-1.5)