Atlanta Falcons

NFL betting line: Over 10 +105/Under 10 -135 (odds subject to change)
Last year: 13-3
Pick: Over 10

The Falcons are perennially the one great team that nobody seems to talk about. Over the past five years, Atlanta has made four trips to the playoffs, won the NFC South twice and posted an overall regular-season record of 56-24. The one legitimate knock on the Falcons during that time has been their inability to win in the postseason, though Atlanta did reach the NFC championship game last year.

Atlanta returns many of the key offensive pieces (QB Matt Ryan, WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones, TE Tony Gonzalez) that have made it one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks. The Falcons have made a change at the RB position, though, bringing in Steven Jackson to replace Michael Turner. Jackson is much more explosive than the plodding Turner and is also more of a threat in the passing game. However, Jackson’s numbers have declined in the last couple years, including his yards after contact. That could be crucial behind an offensive line that lost veteran center Todd McClure (retirement) and has a couple unproven starters.

The Falcons’ defensive line is another potential weakness, particularly the pass rush. John Abraham, who led the team in sacks five of the last six years, is gone. In his place is former Giants star Osi Umenyiora, but he hasn’t been the same player since injuring his knee a few years ago and hasn’t made the Pro Bowl in six years. Behind the defensive line, the Falcons return all three starting linebackers and both safeties. However, Atlanta is expected to rely heavily on a pair of rookie cornerbacks this year.

The NFC South isn’t exactly Murderer’s Row, but it did hand the Falcons all three of their losses last year (3-3). Atlanta’s out-of-division schedule wasn’t that difficult (wins over Denver and the Giants were the Falcons’ most impressive), and four of their victories came by four points or less, including tight wins over the Raiders, Panthers and Cardinals.

When Cantor Gaming posted point spreads last month for all 2013 NFL games up to Week 16, the Falcons were underdogged in just three of them: their opener at New Orleans, Week 14 at Green Bay and Week 16 at San Francisco.

But the fact remains that although it’s hard to reach double digits in victories consistently in the NFL, the Falcons have done it quietly and consistently in recent years. Until they prove they can’t, we don’t see any reason to bet against this team.

 

Atlanta Falcons 2013 schedule

1	Sun, Sep 8	@ New Orleans	1:00 PM FOX
2	Sun, Sep 15	vs St. Louis	1:00 PM FOX
3	Sun, Sep 22	@ Miami	4:05 PM FOX
4	Sun, Sep 29	vs New England	8:30 PM NBC
5	Mon, Oct 7	vs New York Jets	8:30 PM ESPN
6	BYE WEEK
7	Sun, Oct 20	vs Tampa Bay	1:00 PM FOX
8	Sun, Oct 27	@ Arizona	4:25 PM FOX
9	Sun, Nov 3	@ Carolina	1:00 PM FOX
10	Sun, Nov 10	vs Seattle	1:00 PM FOX
11	Sun, Nov 17	@ Tampa Bay	1:00 PM FOX
12	Thu, Nov 21	vs New Orleans	8:25 PM NFL
13	Sun, Dec 1	@ Buffalo	4:05 PM FOX
14	Sun, Dec 8	@ Green Bay	8:30 PM NBC
15	Sun, Dec 15	vs Washington	1:00 PM FOX
16	Mon, Dec 23	@ San Francisco	8:30 PM ESPN
17	Sun, Dec 29	vs Carolina	1:00 PM FOX