Bet Against San Diego Chargers If You Think Miami Or Baltimore Will Win Early

Timing is everything, particularly when it comes to NFL betting on the final weekend.

Point spreads on a lot of games are determined by teams’ perceived motivations to win. Some need victories to keep their playoff hopes alive, while others have nothing to gain in the standings and might not be as hungry as their opponents.

Philip Rivers and the Chargers will be a little down if they know they're eliminated before kickoff against the Chiefs. — Philip Rivers and the Chargers will be a little down if they know they’re eliminated before kickoff against the Chiefs.

Not all the games on Sunday are played at once, however. Circumstances surrounding the later games will change based on the results of the early games. And this is where you can get an edge.

The San Diego Chargers, for example, are listed as 9.5-point favourites at home to Kansas City. San

Diego needs a win and some help in order to make the playoffs, while the Chiefs are locked into the fifth spot in the AFC and may rest a lot of their starters. That explains the high point spread in this o

ne. However, if Miami or Baltimore win their 1 p.m. (eastern) games, the Chargers will be eliminated by the time they kick off against the Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. eastern. San Diego will obviously not be as motivated if it knows its season is over, and the point spread will change dramatically.

You can get ahead of this point spread move if you think Miami will beat the Jets or Baltimore will beat the Bengals. If you think either of those things will happen, it’s worth a bet on Kansas City +9.5 before those odds drop like a stone. And if Miami and Baltimore do indeed both lose, you still have a chance to win your KC +9.5 ticket if the Chargers are playing a bit tight under the pressure or the Chiefs decide they want to work on some things with their starters in the lineup.

Other late games that could see the point spreads change after the early results are the Buccaneers at Saints (a Carolina loss against the Falcons would open the door for New Orleans to win the NFC South) and the Bills at Patriots (New England clinches No. 2 in the AFC if Cincinnati and Indianapolis lose or tie). The other 4:25 p.m. games with playoff ramifications are being played at the same time as other games that will impact the teams involved. (ie. San Francisco needs Seattle to lose, Arizona needs New Orleans to lose, etc.)

The Green Bay/Chicago and Philadelphia/Dallas games will determine division winners and playoff participants, regardless of the outcomes of other games.