In February 2013, many NBA bettors were licking their lips to see Cleveland Cavaliers star Kyrie Irving out of the lineup due to injury.

Chicago opened as a 6.5-point home favourite to the Cavs but, after word got out that Irving would miss the game, the Bulls were bet up to 8-point faves.

A similar thing happened the following night, when Cleveland hosted the Raptors. Toronto opened as a 3.5-point favourite but was laying as many as 5.5 points by tipoff.

Obviously, bettors saw extra value in betting against Cleveland without Irving on the floor. And they were wrong.

The Cavaliers won both games outright, stunning the Bulls by 3 points in Chicago and then defeating the Raps by 11.

Situations like this have become a trend in sports, particularly the NBA. Also in 2013, the Boston Celtics went on a huge winning streak as soon as Rajon Rondo was lost for the season and NBA experts said there was no chance they could make the playoffs.

When we hear star players are out of the lineup, our gut instinct is to think their team is screwed. How can they possibly win without that player, we think to ourselves?

Obviously, they can. It’s common to see other players “step up” their game to compensate for the absence of their star teammate. Many see it as a chance to showcase their skills in a greater role.

Leafs fans might recall the playoffs in the early 2000s when Mats Sundin was injured in the opening round. Toronto went on to win its next 2 series without its fallen captain. Ironically, when Sundin returned, the Leafs regressed, losing the East Conference final to Carolina.

Another factor to keep in mind when star players are injured or suspended is that the oddsmakers take this into account when they set or adjust the line. Unless you make your bet before the star player is ruled out of the lineup, you’re almost always going to be betting against an adjusted line that has already factored in that player’s absence.

If anything, it seems like a good strategy to bet on teams who are without their star player. At least for a few games, when the adrenalin of “stepping up” for fallen teammates wears off and the impact of the star’s absence really begins to be felt.