Week 2 of the National Football League is known as Overreaction Week for a reason.
There are always a few teams that look surprisingly good in Week 1, and there are always a few teams that greatly disappoint. Even though it is just one week of sample size to go by, bettors often conclude that what they saw in the opening week is what to expect for the rest of the season.
Teams that looked great in Week 1? The Broncos scored 49 on the Super Bowl champs, Kansas City blew out the Jags, Philadelphia dominated the Redskins in Washington and Oakland gave the Colts a scare in Indy.
Teams that didn’t look quite so hot in their opener included the Steelers losing outright at home to Tennessee, the Patriots scrambling for a late victory at Buffalo and the Giants allowing 36 points in Dallas.
To analyze what overreaction there may have been for Week 2’s betting lines, we thought we’d compare them to the lines Cantor Gaming posted for all NFL 2013 regular-season games six months ago. Here’s a quick look at the games with the biggest discrepancies in those odds, beginning with the largest.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 2 line: Bengals -7
Cantor pre-season line: Bengals -1
Cincy showed well in its opener, playing the Bears tough in Chicago and losing by a field goal. But this line is absolutely about the Steelers, who laid a big fat egg in their season-opening 16-9 loss at home to the Titans last week. Just four of Pittsburgh’s 11 drives gained more than eight yards, and the Steelers were limited to 32 yards on the ground. A touchdown spread on an NFC North game seems ridiculous, especially when you consider the Steelers have owned the Bengals (11-1-1 against the spread) recently in Cincinnati.
Value: Steelers
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 2 line: Eagles -7
Cantor pre-season line: Eagles -2.5
Bettors love offence, so it’s no surprise they have fallen in love with that high-paced Philly attack they saw in Chip Kelly’s debut Monday in Washington. The Eagles ran 53 plays in the first half, building a 26-7 lead by intermission. San Diego, meanwhile, looked like the same old Chargers, somehow pulling defeat from the jaws of victory in blowing a 21-point lead to lose at home to the Texans.
Value: Chargers
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Week 2 line: Patriots -12
Cantor pre-season line: Patriots -8
Four points of inflation on this line, which seems a bit difficult to understand considering how New England nearly lost at Buffalo while the Jets upset the Bucs. Perhaps bettors are looking at how New England racked up 26 first downs to the Bills’ 15, allowed a defensive touchdown and settled for field goals in the red zone. But the Jets also carried the play against Tampa Bay (22 first downs to 12) and held the Bucs to three second-half points. Bill Belichick has a great track record against rookie quarterbacks, but E.J. Manuel handled himself pretty well against the Pats last week.
Value: Jets
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Week 2 line: Bears -6
Cantor pre-season line: Bears -2.5
Chicago might have answered a few questions with that 24-21 win over the Bengals when Jay Cutler and the Bears offence looked pretty good. But this line might be more of a reaction to how bad the Vikings looked against Detroit, getting outscored 34-17 after Adrian Peterson’s 78-yard TD run on Minnesota’s first play from scrimmage. Minny’s defence was shredded for 469 yards and Peterson was held to 15 yards the rest of the way.
Value: Vikings
Denver Broncos at NY Giants
Week 2 line: Denver -4.5
Cantor pre-season line: Denver -1
One of the best-looking teams in Week 1 (Denver) visits one of the worst-looking (New York) in the latest edition of the Manning Bowl. But as we wrote earlier this week, the boxscores from both the Broncos’ and Giants’ games told a different story from the final scores. Though Denver put up 49 points on Baltimore, the Broncos trailed the Ravens early in the second half. Denver and Baltimore each had 24 first downs. The biggest difference was the Broncos’ big-play ability, scoring five majors on plays of 20 yards or more. Meanwhile, the Giants gave up 36 points to Dallas — but two of those touchdowns were scored by the Cowboys defence. New York turned the ball over six times to negate a 428-yard passing day by Eli Manning.
Value: Giants
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 2 line: Chiefs -3
Cantor pre-season line: Cowboys -1
All aboard the Kansas City bandwagon! The Chiefs have been one of the sexy picks to be a much-improved team in 2013, and they got their season off to a great start with that 28-2 win in Jacksonville. A 26-point win certainly looks impressive, but the Chiefs did only gain 17 first downs in the game and started two of their touchdown drives inside the Jags’ 25-yard line. Fortunately for anyone who wants to back the Chiefs this week, this line was likely limited to a field goal because of Dallas’ win over the Giants on Sunday night.
Value: Cowboys
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
Week 2 line: Packers -7.5
Cantor pre-season line: Packers -4.5
Green Bay gave the 49ers a good test Sunday in San Fran, nearly covering as 4.5-point dogs. This is also the Pack’s home opener, so it’s fair to expect a motivated effort from the Cheeseheads in this one. However, the big reason the Redskins are dogged by more than a touchdown is because how awful they looked in the first half of their Monday Night loss to the Eagles. Robert Griffin III looked reluctant to run the ball, the biggest thing that made him so successful last year. Washington did show a lot of improvement in the second half, however, coming back from a 19-point deficit to lose by just six.
Value: Redskins
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Week 2 line: Colts -3
Cantor pre-season line: Colts pick ’em
Surprising to see this much love for the Colts. Indy didn’t exactly look great against the Raiders last week, being outgained by nearly 100 yards and gashed for 171 on the ground. Andrew Luck led the Colts to touchdowns on their first two possessions, then did nothing until directing a go-ahead TD drive in the fourth quarter. Miami might not be the team to exploit the Colts’ weakness on the ground, however. The Dolphins were held under one yard per rushing attempt in their 23-10 win over the Browns, which was keyed by three Cleveland turnovers.
Value: Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
Week 2 line: Raiders -5.5
Cantor pre-season line: Raiders -3
The Jags lost by 26 points at home, Indy lost by four points on the road. Makes sense that bettors are jumping on board with the Raiders, particularly after Terrelle Pryor threw for 200-plus yards and ran for 112 more in his first start of the season. Jacksonville also goes into this one with its back-up quarterback, though the loss of starter Blaine Gabbert doesn’t exactly fit the definition of ‘crippling’. All signs point to the Raiders in this one, but here’s the crucial question: Can you really trust Oakland to win any game? The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six at home, 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in their previous contest, and 20-43-1 ATS versus teams with losing records.
Value: Jaguars
Other Games
St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons
Week 2 line: Falcons -7
Cantor pre-season line: Falcons -7
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills
Week 2 line: Panthers -3
Cantor pre-season line: Panthers -1
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Week 2 line: Ravens -6.5
Cantor pre-season line: Ravens -7.5
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Week 2 line: Texans -9
Cantor pre-season line: Texans-7.5
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Week 2 line: Lions -1
Cantor pre-season line: Lions -2.5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 2 line: Saints -3
Cantor pre-season line: Saints -1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Week 2 line: Seahawks -2.5
Cantor pre-season line: Seahawks -2.5