We think Johnny Manziel can help the Browns keep things close tonight in Cincinnati. (Photo credit: Erik Drost)
The public’s love affair with Johnny Manziel seems to be a thing of the past.
When word got out that Johnny Football would be starting at QB for the Browns Thursday in Cincinnati, the already-large Bengals Browns point spread got even larger. The line went from Cincinnati -10 at Pinnacle Sports to -11.5 by Thursday morning, adding even more value on the underdog Browns as our free NFL point spread pick.
This is a rivalry game, not just of AFC North rivals but in-state rivals. Cleveland and Cincinnati is the Battle of Ohio and these games are often close, or even won by the underdog. In fact, the underdog is 13-2-1 against the spread in the last 16 meetings between these two teams.
This is also a Thursday Night Football game. A double-digit underdog like the Browns does not want to get humiliated on national TV, so you can expect their best effort here. The short turnaround (four days to prepare) also favours the underdog, since the Bengals haven’t had as much time to game plan and exploit their advantages. They’ve also had less time to game plan for Manziel, who is a very different QB than injured Browns starter Josh McCown (who isn’t exactly Aaron Rodgers, who are we kidding).
Finally, the Bengals are coming off a huge come-from-behind win at Pittsburgh, one that practically locked up the division for Cincinnati. Everyone is drinking the Bengals Kool-Aid these days, possibly even the Bengals themselves. There is a strong chance Cincinnati overlooks the Browns in this spot, psychologically taking this win for granted and looking forward to a few days off.
All of these factors add up to make a great reason to make the Browns +11.5 our free NFL point spread pick. As of Thursday afternoon, you could make that bet at -105 odds at Pinnacle Sports with their reduced juice NFL odds, or you could also get +11.5 -105 at Bodog because they shade their NFL lines towards favourites.
If you wait a little longer to make the bet, you might even get +12 or better at Bodog as everyone lines up to bet on the Bengals. Check out our odds page for the latest NFL betting odds.
Take the Browns +11.5 tonight, and good luck.