Leafs Trending Over The Total When Reimer Starts

James Reimer has benefited from lots of offensive support from his teammates this season. (Photo credit: Bridget Samuels / Foter / CC BY)


— By Patrick O’Neill

The goal support for James Reimer is real.

It’s starting to seem like the Maple Leafs players like to play more for James Reimer in net rather than the “starting goalie” Jonathan Bernier.

Going into Wednesday, the Leafs had played 11 games: seven that Bernier started and four that Reimer started – though in one game Bernier was pulled and Reimer was forced into action. The Leafs only won two of those 11 games and both were when Reimer started in goal. That was directly due to the production that the Leafs put up on the score board.

In their first 11 games, the Maple Leafs scored a total of 24 goals. Nine of those goals came in games started by Bernier. And in the four games started by Reimer, the Leafs scored 15.

Before Wednesday, they hadn’t scored under 3 goals of support for Reimer – 4 vs. Ottawa, 6 vs. Columbus, 3 vs. Arizona, and 4 vs. Dallas. In Reimer’s first four starts, the Leafs went over the NHL betting total 3 times.

It is too small of a sample size to believe the Leafs are playing harder for Reimer in net, but now that Bernier has suffered an undisclosed injury, the Leafs net will now belong to Reimer for the near future. If this success in the win column and on the score sheet continues, Bernier could be riding the pine upon his return.

For now, it seems to be a much safer choice to bet on the Leafs being .500 when Reimer starts.

Bernier has a better save percentage and a better Goals Against Average than Reimer but he has faced less shots and has failed to win a game.

This could mean that the Leafs feel the need to score more when Reimer is in net, but they are sacrificing defense when scoring more goals. Reimer has seen 40+ shots more than anyone in the league since his debut (30 games) and Bernier is also in the top 5. The Leafs may be trying to limit shots on Bernier to support him more in net, but it leads to them generating less offence as well.

With Reimer in net for the next few games, it’s quite possible the Leafs trend will continue and they will put up more goals and even wins. But with Reimer slated to start against tougher opponents, this trend might also be short lived.