This is an important season in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays, who haven’t been to the postseason since going back-to-back in the World Series in 1992 and 1993. But with one more wild-card spot up for grabs in the American League (there is also an added wild-card in the National League as well), the Blue Jays could be back in the postseason sooner than anyone thought.
From baseball experts and insiders to MLB betting sharps, the Blue Jays are the trendy pick to cause some problems with an improving lineup but the pitching will have to step up, particularly the starters, if Toronto wants to move up in the always-tough American League East.
Odds to win 2012 AL Pennant at Bodog
New York Yankees 13/4
Los Angeles Angels 7/2
Detroit Tigers 4/1
Toronto Blue Jays 22/1
Starting Pitching
Ricky Romero is the unquestioned ace after his All-Star 2011 campaign but after that, Toronto’s rotation is shaky. Brandon Morrow has the stuff to be an ace but he is wildly inconsistent. Brett Cecil took a major step backward last season but he came into camp much lighter than this season. Henderson Alvarez is promising but still very young and Dustin McGowan hasn’t been able to stay healthy in years.
Kyle Drabek spent most of last season in the minors and has yet to really live up to his high expectations and they have a few other youngsters in the minors if the Blue Jays have to call someone up. Toronto’s success on the betting lines is contingent on the starters to work into the later innings and take some of the pressure off the bullpen.
Relief Pitching
Toronto’s bullpen was simply awful in 2011, blowing 25 saves. Only Houston had a worse save conversion rate than the Blue Jays’ 57%. So the Blue Jays went out and picked up Sergio Santos from the Chicago White Sox after he saved 30 games last season and at 28-years-old, Toronto is getting a guy who has pitched in just 119 games in his two-year career, spread out over 115.0 innings, so he is in great shape and should be able to handle a heavy workload.
The rest of the pen is in looking good with Francisco Cordero and Darren Oliver as the setup men while Jason Frasor returned to Toronto from Chicago, and Casey Janssen earned a raise after a solid 2011. Last year’s bullpen didn’t do much for the Blue Jays’ MLB betting odds, but this year, they should be help them out.
Odds to win 2012 AL East at Bodog
New York Yankees -150
Boston Red Sox +300
Tampa Bay Rays +450
Toronto Blue Jays +1200
Hitting
The Blue Jays’ main concern is finding protection for slugger Jose Bautista, who has led the majors in homers in each of the last two seasons. Adam Lind was bothered by back problems during the second half of last season and should slot in behind Bautista, who will bat third. Everyone is waiting to see a full season of Brett Lawrie, who lit up the second half of the season and he is a popular pick for breakout star. J.P. Arencibia has some power, but his average is poor; at least he has a great rapport with Romero and the rest of the staff behind the plate. Colby Rasmus hasn’t shown much since moving from St. Louis to Toronto but with a full training camp behind him with his teammates, he should be more comfortable.
There are questions about Kelly Johnson at second and the battle between Travis Snider and Eric Thames in left field but overall, there is a ton of potential in the Toronto lineup. They’ll have to be able to generate runs in the American League East and the Blue Jays have the tools. Now it’s just a matter of execution.
Outlook
You can find Toronto at 22/1 on the MLB betting futures to win the World Series at Bodog Sportsbook and they’ll need a few breaks to go their way in a division with the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. Winning the division may be out of reach this year but with an extra wild card spot on the way, maybe the Blue Jays can make it to the playoffs. Last season, Toronto was 10 games out of a wild-card spot, which could have been made up if they hadn’t blown so many saves. If they clean that up, they should be in the thick of the race.
Everything is in place for the Blue Jays to make a run at the postseason, but there is a lot of pressure on the starting pitching to compete in the American League.