Defence like this looks a lot sexier when it puts lots of money in your wallet. (Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA)
It’s always more fun cheering for offence than defence.
It’s why the highlight packages on Sportscentre or Sportsnet Connected are filled with goals, home runs, long bombs and slam dunks.
No one gets as excited about the defenceman sprawling to break up a 2-on-1, or the linebacker staying in his lane to keep the quarterback in the pocket.
Oddsmakers know it’s more fun betting overs than unders, so we’re never surprised to see the over under betting statistics show more unders than overs in a certain sports season.
But this year’s NBA over under betting has been extreme.
If you bet under in every game this year in the NBA, you’d be up a lot of money. As of Feb. 3, the under was hitting at a 54.14% clip this season, going 386-327.
Putting that into perspective
if you bet to win $100 on the under every game at standard -110 odds, you’d have won $38,600 and lost $35,970 for a profit of $2,630.
That’s a return on investment (ROI) of 3.35% ($110 x 703 games = 78,430 wagered to win $2,630).
At a reduced juice sportsbook like Pinnacle Sports, where you can get -105 odds on NBA over under betting, the numbers would be even more lucrative. You’d have won $38,600 and lost $34,335 for a profit of $4,265.
Your ROI would be 5.77% ($105 x 703 games = $73,815 wagered to win $4,265).
Lean to the under
We’re not suggesting you bet the under on every game the rest of the season. It seems unlikely that the under can hit at higher than 54% for an entire NBA campaign.
But if you’re looking to do NBA over under betting, under is probably the first way you should lean.