Andrew Luck and the Colts have been the best NFL team to bet on this season. (Photo credit: NFLfan18 / Foter / CC BY-ND)
NFL betting line moves early in the week are a good indication of where the most money is coming in.
As oddsmakers take more and more bets on a team, they’ll move the NFL betting lines in order to try to balance the action with bets on the other side.
NFL betting lines that move off or onto a key number like 3 or 7 are especially significant.
Here are four NFL betting lines that moved early in Week 14, and our opinions on the line moves.
LINE MOVE: Colts -3 to -4 at Browns
Agree/Disagree: AGREE
Colts have won 2 games in a row by 20-plus points, so it doesn’t shock us to see bettors lining up to take them this weekend in Cleveland. Browns’ promising season seems to be unraveling, losing two of past three to fall to 7-5 and lose ground in the AFC playoff race. Cleveland also has a QB controversy on its hands after Johnny Manziel relived Brian Hoyer last week in Buffalo.
Indianapolis is the best team against the spread this season and has covered four of five on the road.
LINE MOVE: Broncos -9 to -10 vs Bills
Agree/Disagree: DISAGREE
Denver dominated division rival Kansas City last week on Sunday Night Football to take control of the AFC West, and might not be as motivated for a visit from the Bills. Buffalo is definitely motivated after winning its last two games to remain in the playoff hunt.
Bills have held opponents to a combined total of 13 points in those last two contests. That’s not a defence you want to be laying double digits against these days, Peyton Manning or not.
LINE MOVE: 49ers -7 to -8 at Raiders
Agree/Disagree: DISAGREE
What have the 49ers done to deserve betting support this week? San Fran was dominated in a crucial showdown with Seattle last Thursday and has already lost to the Rams and Bears this season.
This line move is more of a reaction to the Raiders being annihilated 52-0 last week in St. Louis. But let’s remember Oakland won its “Super Bowl” the previous game with a win over Kansas City, and obviously suffered a letdown against the Rams. The Raiders are bad, but they’re not 52 points worse than anybody.
Oakland should be motivated to gain back some respect this week in this Battle of the Bay, and San Fran will likely be tight and worried about making mistakes.
LINE MOVE: Patriots -3 to -3.5 at Chargers
Agree/Disagree: AGREE
It’s never a bad idea to take the Patriots when they’re coming off a loss, and that’s what we get this weekend. New England is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a defeat.
San Diego returns home after an emotional come-from-behind win in Baltimore. Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot themselves, but it seems likely that New England will be the hungrier team in this matchup.
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games as well.