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Super Bowl Breakdown and Pick:
Giants versus the Patriots in Superbowl XLVI. I truly believe that this is a matchup between the two teams that are playing the ‘best’ football right now. So how to approach this game? Well, the ‘hype’ right now is all about the Giants and how great they’re playing. They’re healthy, they’re hungry, and they’ve just put together an impressive 5-game winning streak beating the likes of ATL, GB, and SF. I don’t disagree. I think Giants are playing terrific ‘football’ right now. The interesting thing though is that the Patriots are playing just as well, if not even slightly better. Of course the G-men have faced opponents that we all view as ‘superior’ competition: NYJ, DAL, ATL, GB, and SF compared to the ones that NE faced: DEN, MIA, BUF, DEN, and BAL and I’m assuming this is part of the reason why the public is on New York in this one. I guess it’s all part of perception. Watching the Giants beat the Packers by 17 points seems more impressive than routing Denver by 35, but is it really? Neither team controls who they face and I won’t worry about that either. I’ve analyzed the statistics for both and that’s what we’re going to compare in this analysis going forward.
First thing I wanted to do was the run my model to compare various predictions for this game. I used statistics from the FULL Season, 2nd half of the season, and the Last 5 games for each team. Results are below:
Model Predictions:
Full Season Data:
29-23 Patriots
Variance: -6 NE
O/U: 52
2nd Half Season Data:
30-22 Patriots
Variance: -8 NE
O/U: 52
Last-5 Games Data:
25-24 Patriots
Variance: -1 NE
O/U: 49
Analyzing this data, it’s clear that over the course of a full season, New England was the better team. You can see that the gap widened in the 2nd half of the season where the Giants had losses to NO, PHI, SF, and GB and a bad one at home to Seattle. The Pats haven’t lost a game in the 2nd half. The surprise is of course when we compare the last-5 games only, the model still has NE as the ‘better’ team. Hmmm. Everyone is under the impression that the Giants have been the ‘best’ team over this stretch, but that’s just not the case. Let’s assume you don’t trust my model, is there another way to compare each team’s performance over the last 5-games? Yes, FootballOutsiders published their advanced stats for that time period and they also had NE as the ‘better’ team. Not by much, but slightly better: 37.7% DVOA NE to 36.8% DVOA NYG. The point with this exercise is to understand which team is the ‘better’ of the two. Finally, let’s compare the relative-strengths of each team for the full season:
New York Giants:
Offense: 25.0 PPG vs 21.5 ODef = +3.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG vs 24.1 OOff = +1.0
Total ‘Relative-Strength’ = +4.5
New England Patriots:
Offense: 32.3 PPG vs 22.7 ODef = +9.6
Defense: 20.7 PPG vs 21.3 OOff = +0.6
Total ‘Relative-Strength’ = +10.2
The difference in RS between the two teams is around 6 points (+5.7 to be exact) in NE’s favor, which is very close to what my model is projecting based on full-year statistics. At the same time, it was also the same point-spread that Vegas has set when the two teams faced off earlier this year. The spread was -9.5 NE @ Foxborough, and if you subtract 3.5 points for home-field advantage (remember, NE’s home-field advantage is a little higher than most places, so 3.5 and not 3 should be used) you get NE by -6. Well, the line in the SuperBowl, on a neutral field, is -3 Pats, with -2.5 showing up in certain places as well. That’s a pretty big adjustment. It’s obvious that adjustment is due to the fact that New York is playing much better right now than they did throughout the full season and some of it can be attributed to public’s perception as well. But remember, as well as the Giants are playing, New England is playing even better!
Let’s compare each team in a little more detail:
Passing Game:
Both Brady and Manning have been terrific this year. Statistically, Brady is still a ‘better’ player overall, but Manning’s intangibles (poise, confidence, toughness) are making it tough to doubt the fact that he is an ‘elite’ QB in his own right. Of course each team has its own strength on offense. Giants have elite WR’s with the emergence of Victor Cruz, while the Pats have the most dominant TE duo, maybe ever.
Advantage: NONE
Running Game:
Believe it or not, Patriots are a very good ‘running’ team. You can’t look at their ‘total’ rushing numbers since they are a ‘passing’ team, but on a per attempt basis, they are very efficient. BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a 4.5 RY/A average against Baltimore, the best run-D in the league, while overall Patriots exceeded 115 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. The Giants have struggled running the ball all season long, evidenced by their 3.5 RY/A average, last in the league. They did have a solid day running against Atlanta in the playoffs, but haven’t done much since then. It’s pretty clear that running the ball is not their strength this year. Throw in the fact that BJGE never fumbles while both Bradshaw and Jacobs have a propensity at times to put the ball on the ground, and I think this one is pretty clear.
Advantage: New England
Offensive Line:
NE’s O-line is ranked #2 in run-blocking (4.53 Adjusted Line Yards) and #8 in pass-blocking (5.4% Adjusted Sack Rate). They are the primary reason why NE has been successful in the run game this year. In the two games of the playoffs they’ve allowed 1 sack and have played very well. NYG’s O-line is ranked #28 in run-blocking (3.81 ALY) and #6 in pass-blocking (5.1% ASR). It’s pretty clear where their strength is. Huge part of the reason New York hasn’t been successful running the ball this year is their O-line. They just don’t provide enough of a ‘push’ up front. At the same time, this unit has been flagged for 6 out of 8 offensive-holding penalties in the post-season.
Advantage: New England
Defense:
We all know that New York’s D has been playing ‘out of its mind’ lately, causing turnovers, creating havoc for opposing quarterbacks, etc. They look like a different unit out there, compared to the one during the regular season. In their 3 playoff games NY has allowed 12.3 PPG and has played terrific. A couple of concerns though. Giants D was able to generate a number of turnovers from both GB and SF, both teams that normally do a great job of protecting the ball. At the same time, the Packers had an uncharacteristically high number of dropped passes, which led to stalled drives and missed opportunities. I don’t want to take any credit away from NY’s defense, but you can argue that ‘luck’ has played at least some part. Turnovers, especially fumbles, are fairly unpredictable and ‘luck’ does play some part in it. In the last 2 games of the post-season (GB + SF), the Giants had a favorable 6 to 1 TO ratio. Out of those 6 TO’s, 5 were fumbles (3 in GB game and 2 in SF). What is interesting about this is that the Giants defense forced 5 total fumbles in those 2 games and had a 100% recovery rate. During the season NY was middle of the road team forcing 16 fumbles and recovering 11 (68% success rate). New England is the 2nd best team in the NFL in terms of fumbling the ball, as they had only 8 the whole season (5 were recovered). Another factor to consider is that this Giants defense is much better at rushing the passer than defending the run. They’ve allowed 147 rushing yards to the Packers (6.4 RY/A) and 150 to San Fran (5.4 RY/A) in the last 2 playoff games. That’s definitely a concern going up against an efficient run-game of NE.
Even though all the talk is about Giants’ defensive improvements in the playoffs, New England has quietly put up some impressive defensive performances of their own. In their 2 playoff games this defense has allowed 15 PPG and it wasn’t due to turnovers. Actually the TO differential in those 2 games was 2 to 5 in favor of NE’s opponents. This makes NE’s accomplishments defensively even more impressive. They limited Denver’s running offense to 144 yards and only 3.6 RY/A and held Baltimore to 116 yards and 3.7 RY/A. Ray Rice was only able to gain 67 yards on 21 carries (3.2 RY/A) and was taken out of the game early. Still, you have to be concerned when a defense is using a WR as a 3rd/4th CB.
Overall, you have to give defensive edge to the Giants. They have more playmakers in the secondary and their D-line is obviously elite. Still, we have to remember that NE was the 2nd most efficient defense in the league this year, holding opponents to 19.3 YPPT (Yards Per Point) and 20.6 PPG (11th overall). Giants’ D had an efficiency of 15.1 YPPT (#21 in the NFL) and allowed 23.1 PPG (22nd overall). With the way both these defenses are playing right now, the advantage is not as big as most people think.
Advantage: New York (but not as large as most think)
Special Teams:
NE #5 vs NYG #16
Advantage: New England
Overall Analysis:
In 2007 the Giants played NE in the regular season and almost ruined their ‘perfect season’ with a 3-point loss. They got their ‘revenge’ in the SuperBowl winning on a last-minute drive from Manning. This year, NE faced the Giants again during the regular season and this time they were the ones who lost a close one. Will NE avenge that loss in the SuperBowl? It’s interesting how this one is shaping up. It’s hard to envision the Patriots losing to the same team twice in one season. Belichick is still one of the best coaches in the league and you can expect him to make solid adjustments for the rematch. Of course Coughlin is no ‘slouch’ either and he’ll have his team just as prepared. This one will come down to game plan and execution. I expect New England to run the ball a lot more than anyone expects. Giants are weak at stopping the run and if NE is successful, that will also help neutralize the pass rush. At the same time, expect the Giants to do the same in the first half. Coughlin has always believed in a strong running game and establishing ‘balance’ on offense. There’s no reason why he’ll get away from that philosophy early. Still, I don’t see NY being as successful. Patriots’ front 7 has played well in the playoffs and rushing yards will be hard to come by. The Giants should be able to move the ball via the pass though, as New England will probably keep their safeties deep and take away the long-play. I see the first half being a tad lower scoring, as things open up in the 2nd. Both the total and the side are pretty sharp. There’s definitely some ‘value’ on the UNDER for the full game but not enough for me to make a play there. I just think that both offenses have too much firepower and if both go ‘hurry’ up, this one could get over the total. As for the side, remember, NE were considered -6 points better in the first meeting this season. Now they’re -3. That’s a big jump. Could this one go either way? Absolutely. But something tells me that New England will prevail in this one. Teams that can run the ball, typically control the clock, control the pace, and overall are able to control the flow of the game. New England is the team that has the best shot at running the ball successfully. By doing so, that will neutralize Giants’ pass-rush and will open things up for the intermediate passing attack. On the other side, I don’t see New York having much success running the ball. They’ll have to pass to win. Remember that against San Fran, this Giants O-line allowed 6 sacks and 49ers hit Manning 12 other times. New England’s D has 8 sacks in their first 2 playoff games this year. In the previous meeting with NY, even though they had 0 sacks, they did register 8 QB hits on Eli. I expect them to get some pressure on him in this one as well. Even if they can’t get him down, remember that Giants’ O-line has registered 6 offensive-holding penalties out of 8 total this post-season. Those are ‘drive killers’. In a tightly matched game like this, that could be all the difference. I think there are enough ‘factors’ that favor NE in this one. It might not seem as obvious at first, but after breaking this game down, I give NE over 60% of a chance of winning the game.
Plays:
#1: New England Patriots -2.5 (@ -120) – 1.5 Unit Play
Really not much value in taking -3. The chances of a spread coming into play is really small of course but this SuperBowl does have a chance to end with a last-second FG. I think it’s worth it to get this one below 3.
#2: UNDER 28 1st half (@ -125) – ½ Unit Play
I do see a lower scoring 1st half in this one. Both teams will try to establish their running games and control the clock. Things should open up in the 2nd half, thus playing the UNDER for the full-game is risky. Besides, if 1st half does not stay ‘low-scoring’ I don’t see how the full game does either.