Catchers like Buster Posey are valuable to their team because of their offensive and defensive impact. (Photo credit: SD Dirk / Foter / CC BY)
We all know how important starting pitchers are to the daily MLB odds.
But what are position players worth to your baseball picks? Probably not as much as you think.
Even the game’s greatest sluggers will have a limited impact on the MLB odds. They’re one of eight players in the field (nine, if you include the DH in the American League) and they’ll probably come up to bat 4-5 times during the game.
There’s a lot of parity in baseball. When the best team starts its best pitcher against the worst team’s worst pitcher, the MLB odds are still likely to be -300 or less (implying 75 % probability of the favourite winning). There are too many variables in baseball to find a ‘lock’ in your baseball picks.
It’s also important to realize the difference between a star player and their replacement is probably around a 30% improvement in production. For example, a star’s on-base percentage might be .390, compared to .300 by their backup. The game’s brightest stars have their share of 0-for-4 days, they just don’t have them as often.
Still, it’s worth noting who is in the lineup and who isn’t before you make your daily baseball picks. Weekday afternoon games and Sundays are a typical time for managers to give their stars a rest. It’s a wise idea to consult websites like BaseballPress.com to view lineups before the games start. Twitter can also be a great resource for you to help you know who’s playing today and who isn’t.
Five players who affect MLB odds the most
These players all tend to move the MLB odds approximately ten cents (from -120 to -110, for example) with their absences.
(Summaries provided by Pinnacle Sports)
1. Mike Trout
Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA
Simply, MLB’s best all-around player, be it using old- or new-school stats or the eye-test. The cream rises to the top in betting.
2. Miguel Cabrera
Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA
The American League MVP in 2012 and 2013, Cabrera wasn’t quite the same player in 2014. After posting WAR (wins above replacement, which measures players’ value to their team compared to an average player) of at least 6.2 for every season since 2010 (and 7.6 in 2013), Cabrera was “just” 4.87, which ranked 34th among position players. This may not have been a fluke; Cabrera was 31 years old, carries a heavy frame, had injury issues in late 2013 and posted his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate since 2008, recognizable signs of decline.
So why is Cabrera still on this list? It may be due to reliability and a touch of name recognition. Baseball is a large sample game and from those players ahead of him on the WAR leaderboard, only a few of them (many of which provide more defensive value than Cabrera) finished ahead of Cabrera in WAR in 2013. Bettors are betting on Cabrera’s name, bat and five-year steadiness.
3. Troy Tulowitzki
Photo credit: Keith Allison / Foter / CC BY-SA
Injured for much of 2014, Tulowitzki’s value can be summed up in positional scarcity. Finding a replacement outfielder or first baseman that can hit isn’t the greatest of rarities, but a shortstop (the game’s most important defensive position) that can hit nearly as well as the best in the game is a generational talent. Replacing such a rarity is impossible, a reality that’s reflected in market movement.
4. Buster Posey
Photo credit: SD Dirk / Foter / CC BY
Yadier Molina barely missed our top 5, but it’s interesting to note that Pinnacle Sports recently told us Yadi’s injury last season was more influential than Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion’s, despite the latter being the MLB home run leader at the time. The reason? Catchers inspire a different valuation than other non-pitchers because of their roles as field generals.
For top catchers like Posey and Molina, responsibilities include preparing their pitchers for a given day’s opponents, relaying managerial decisions to the rest of the field, calling pitches during a game and co-ordination between a pitcher and their defense. While other fielders can be summed up by surface numbers, the value a top catcher brings is more difficult to measure without descending into minutia, leaving bettors an opportunity to capitalize on market laziness. Properly assess a catcher’s value to their team and you may have the kind of edge that can consistently produce results.
5. Ryan Braun
Photo credit: Steve Paluch / Foter / CC BY
Of the names on this list, Braun’s is the most surprising. After his MVP season in 2012, Braun came under scrutiny for performance-enhancing drug use, after which a rash of injuries demolished his 2013 season. 2014 saw him post his lowest on-base percentage since 2008 with reduced power numbers.
During the middle of the season, ESPN’s Buster Olney published a blog that revealed Braun’s average pulled fly ball was travelling 41 feet fewer than in 2013 and that the one-time slugger has been forced to adapt by hitting to the opposite field. In short, his power has been greatly reduced, likely either by a lingering thumb injury, his no longer using performance-enhancing drugs, or both. Also the fact his stolen base numbers are down might make the more conspiracy-minded observer think it’s not the thumb.
One of baseball’s most consistent hitters for the last half-decade, Braun’s presence on this list, like Cabrera’s, loans to the importance of perceived predictability and name recognition, but it also means something else.
Braun’s old-school stats—home runs, RBI, batting average—have always made him look stronger than advanced stats do (he only has two elite seasons of > 5 WAR). If that’s the case, the baseball betting market may not be optimizing baseball’s advance data analysis revolution.
If that’s true, using advanced statistics like WAR and other sabermetrics could give you an advantage when you handicap the MLB odds.
– Pinnacle Sports is the best sportsbook for Canadians to use to make their baseball picks because of its reduced-juice MLB odds. If you are already a member at Pinnacle Sports, be sure to check out our other recommended sportsbooks for baseball betting.