3 Things To Know When Betting Jays/Rangers Series

The Blue Jays and Rangers will open a much-anticipated ALDS rematch Thursday in Arlington.

Here are 3 things you need to know before you do any betting on the matchup.

Blue Jays Playoff Odds vs Texas

Texas is favoured to win the series, but they’re the smallest favourites of all the Division Series matchups. The Rangers are -130 (risk $130 to win $100) at Pinnacle Sports, indicating 56.5% probability that Texas will win the series. The Blue Jays pay +115, suggesting they have a 46.5% chance of the upset.

Last year, the Blue Jays were -230 favourites to beat Texas in the ALDS, as oddsmakers suggested they had a 70% chance of winning. That ended up happening, but Toronto had to overcome an 0-2 series deficit – after losing the first 2 games at home.

When you take into account that Texas has home field advantage in this series, the odds suggest that oddsmakers believe Toronto is the better team on a neutral field. The Jays certainly have a pitching advantage in Games 3 and 4, since Texas’s rotation is frontloaded with Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish but doesn’t have much to offer after that.

Texas Wins Close Games, Jays Don’t

To say Texas won a lot of close games this year would be like saying Edwin Encarnacion hit a home run Tuesday. It’s accurate, but it’s also a huge understatement.

The Rangers won a ridiculous total of 36 games by 1 run this season, while losing just 11. Texas scored just 8 more runs than its opponents this year, and their expected win-loss record based on those splits was 82-80, certainly not 95- 67.

The Jays, meanwhile, went 21-25 in 1-run ball games this year. That record would have been a lot worse except that Toronto won 6 games by 1 run in September, including 3 of their last 4 victories to end the regular season.

As a team, the Blue Jays have a better bullpen. Toronto’s relief corps compiled a 4.11 ERA, compared to 4.40 for Texas. The Jays, however, have bullpen injury concerns as closer Roberto Osuna left the wild card game with an injury, and they’re already without Joaquim Benoit.

So what does this mean for betting?

Well, going by these numbers, it makes sense that if you’re going to bet on the Blue Jays to win a game, you should take them on the -1.5 run line at longer odds, since 1-run games favour Texas. And if you are betting on Texas to win the game, you don’t want to lay -1.5 runs with the Rangers, since more than one third of their wins this season came by 1 run.

The Jays may be in the Rangers’ heads

So much of baseball is pyschological. How else can you explain Clayton Kershaw and David Price’s struggles in the playoffs, especially when you see how unhittable Madison Bumgarner is in the post-season.

Texas may not be over last year’s playoff loss to the Jays. The Rangers had 2 chances to finish Toronto off in Texas after winning the first 2 games at the Rogers Centre, but failed. And in that classic Game 5 last year, before Bautista hit his memorable home run, we can’t forget the awful defence the Rangers played in allowing the Jays to start their rally.

If you need any proof that the Rangers are obsessed with that loss last year to Toronto, look at how they were still throwing at Bautista seven months later.

There’s a lot of pressure on Texas to avenge last year’s playoff loss as well as live up to their excellent regular-season record. The Jays can embrace the underdog mentality this year and play loose in Texas as if they have nothing to lose.

Oh, and by the way, the Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 games in Texas. If they can grab a game in Arlington – especially Game 1 – don’t be surprised if the Rangers tighten up again and last year’s playoff loss is on their minds.