Top 5 Early Line Moves On The Week 2 NFL Odds

One week is in the books in the NFL, and what a week it was.

11 of the 16 games were decided by a touchdown or less, including four 1-point decisions.

Carolina/Denver, Oakland/New Orleans and New England/Arizona all ended on a field goal attempt that could have won the game, and Dallas/NY Giants might have as well if Terrance Williams had gotten out of bounds in time.

Can Week 2 live up to the same standards? Let’s hope so.

The one thing we’ve got going for us is that we’ve now seen every team in action.

Some looked better than we expected (the Broncos may have a QB after all, maybe the Patriots don’t need Brady to win, the Dolphins might not be that bad, and the 49ers had the biggest margin of victory of the week) and some looked awful (Browns were the Browns, Bills were the Bills, Rams were the Rams).

However, it’s all too easy to get carried away by how teams looked in Week 1.

With that in mind, here are the 5 biggest early line moves on the Week 2 NFL odds as bettors react to what they saw in the opening week.

(Opening lines were taken from BetOnline.ag, which is always among the first sportsbooks to post odds.)

1. Jets at Bills (Line opened Bills -3, now pick ’em)

3 is the biggest key number in NFL football betting, so just going from -3 to -2.5 is a big move on its own. Going all the way to pick ’em indicates everyone and their dog is on the Jets in this matchup.

It’s not hard to see why. The Jets gave the defending AFC North champion Bengals all they could handle in the opener, falling 23-22 on a last-minute field goal. New York limited Cincy to 57 yards on the ground, and Matt Forte racked up 155 total yards for the Jets.

Meanwhile, Buffalo could only muster 11 first downs and a piddly 160 total yards in a 13-7 loss to the Ravens. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor was captain checkdown, averaging approximately 5 yards per pass attempt, and their top receiving weapon, Sammy Watkins, got banged up.

Still, the oddsmakers made Buffalo a 3-point favourite for a reason. The Bills are playing their home opener against a division rival in prime time on Thursday Night Football. They’ve also covered their last 5 games against the Jets, including 4 straight in Buffalo.

Our take: We like the extra value we’re now getting on the Bills.

2. Chiefs at Texans (Line opened pick ’em, now Texans -2.5)

Midway through the early games on Sunday, it appeared that the Chiefs were going to lay the biggest egg of the day.

The Chargers, 6-point underdogs in KC, took a 21-3 lead into halftime and made it 24-3 early in the third quarter. Then the Chiefs rallied, tying the game with 17 points in the final 9 minutes of regulation before winning in OT on Alex Smith’s 2-yard run.

Bettors don’t seem convinced by KC’s performance in Week 1, however. They’ve been lining up to bet on a Texans squad that overcame a second-half deficit of its own, blanking the Bears in the second half to win 23-14.

Brock Osweiler threw 2 TDs in his Houston debut and the Texans defence held the Bears to just 258 total yards.

This is a revenge game for Houston, which was humiliated 30-0 at home by the Chiefs in last year’s playoffs. That was the final game for Texans QB Brian Hoyer, who threw 4 interceptions.

Our take: KC is a team we expect to regress this year because of their reliance on turnovers in 2015. We like the Texans here.

3. Ravens at Browns (Line opened Ravens -6, now Ravens -7)


There isn’t often reason for optimism in Cleveland (with the football team, at least), but there was some excitement this year about the potential of Robert Griffin III at QB.

In typical Browns fashion, that hope is suddenly gone. Griffin took a hard hit to his left (non-throwing) shoulder on his way out of bounds in Week 1 against the Eagles, and he’s out til at least Week 10, if not forever.

Even if RG3 were in the lineup, it’d still be hard to bet on the Browns here. They only had 14 first downs on offence, and they allowed a rookie QB making his first NFL start to go 22-37 for 278 yards and 2 TD.

Baltimore’s defence looked like the 2000 Ravens against the Bills, holding Buffalo to 65 rushing yards and 95 passing yards. It’s hard to imagine how the Browns will move the ball any better than that.

In this clash of fierce AFC North rivals (remember, the Ravens used to be the Browns), Baltimore has had the upper hand for years, going 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 trips to Cleveland.

Our take: Ravens don’t have the offence to cover big spreads on the road, so 7 points seems like a lot.

4. Packers at Vikings (Line opened Packers -1, now Packers -2.5)

The Vikings’ 25-16 win in Tennessee may have looked impressive on the scoreboard, but bettors don’t appear to be fooled.

Minnesota gave up more first downs and total yards than they gained, and Adrian Peterson ran for only 31 yards on 19 carries. But the Vikings scored two touchdowns on defence, taking advantage of an error-prone Titans offence.

Meanwhile, we won betting against the Packers on our Week 1 NFL picks, but that was more because Jacksonville is an under-rated team and shouldn’t have been 6-point home dogs.

Aaron Rodgers didn’t light up the Jaguars defence, but he still had a pretty good game in our eyes, creating something out of nothing on several plays. He finished 20-34 for 199 yards, 2 TD and 0 interceptions.

Green Bay’s defence bent but didn’t break, intercepting Blake Bortles to end one drive and then stopping the Jags on downs late in the fourth quarter to ice the victory.

Still, Minnesota’s a tough home team (20-8 ATS in last 28 at home) and will be jacked up for this home opener against the hated Packers on Sunday Night Football.

Our take: Hard to disagree with the line move. Vikings opponents can now focus on stopping Adrian Peterson and dare Shaun Hill to beat them, and Hill showed nothing in Week 1 to make us think he can.

5. Saints at Giants (Total Opened 51.5, now 53)

New Orleans looked like the same old Saints in Week 1 – plenty of offence, but no defence at all.

The Saints fell 35-34 at home to the Raiders despite Drew Brees throwing for 423 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Saints’ defence was gashed for 167 yards on the ground and another 319 through the air, and gave up 22 points in the fourth quarter alone.

That explains the line move on this total, because it certainly wasn’t the Giants’ result. Eli Manning threw for just 207 yards and the Giants had 18 first downs, but it was enough to edge the Romo-less Cowboys 20-19 in Dallas.

Saints/Giants is the highest total on the board, with only one other game (Buccaneers/Cardinals) in the 50s.

Our take: If this total goes any higher, we’d have to consider the Under, even with New Orleans involved. The Saints aren’t nearly as high-scoring on the road, averaging 18.6 points per game in 2015 compared to 32.4 on the road. They’ve gone Under in 4 of their last 5 away from New Orleans.